Alphaboard - research by investors.

Shared analysis and targets.

Seeking alpha from investment decisions with a margin of safety.

Collaborate with peer investors to counter your biases.

Monitor your investments portfolio with timely alerts.

MBG is generating very good profits and capital returns to share holders. The main profit drivers are luxury ICE cars and vans, where vans did and extra good year. EPS2023 of € 13.46, P/E=5, a proposed dividend of €5.3/share, 40% of EPS, dividend 7.4% (current share price of €71.7). In addition MBG is in the middle of a €4bn buyback program expected to be completed 2024Q3, when a new €3bn program will start with goal of completion 2025Q2. The two buy back programs will total almost 10% of all shares. MBG’s plan is to initiate following share BB in 2025. MBG profit outlook for 2024 is slightly lower than 2023. I think that the Mercedes brand is very valuable and will continue to be, the shift to EV will probably lower profits in 5-10 years but from my perspective that is already in the price, and there is more potential than risk. A reasonable P/E should be at least 10, so even i profits drops there should be potential for significant share price increases.
  •  
  • 80.00 +11.61% by 24/02/2025
24/02/2024Analyses:0
2
Railcare is an industrial company in the railway business including transport (50%), contracting & services (30%) and sales of equipment (machines & tech). The company is mainly active in Sweden and the UK (8%). In 2023 the company realized 13.5% revenue growth and almost 20% in earning per share. A defensive investment with 50% upside potential in the next 4 years plus 3% annual dividend yield. The very low liquidity is a risk in the stock, and can also offer pricing opportunity.
  •  
  • 24.00 +4.80% by 01/03/2025
21/02/2024Analyses:4
2
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Buy by alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
  •  
  • 17.50 +22.16% by 01/03/2025
15/02/2024Analyses:8
3
T

Tesla, Inc.

Monitor by alpha

Tesla is a BEV maker that is loosing its early competitive advantage to Chinese producers and traditional car makers. Chinese brands are gaining market share in China and Europe. Besides that the overall BEV market is expected to have head-winds in 2024. CEO Elon Musk announced that growth is at risk and even asked for protective tariffs in the US. Besides the Tesla's challenges, Elon Musk has other things on his mind. Tesla is over-valued at 40x PE. I expect a further correction towards Dec'22 low of $125 as more institutional investors will close their positions.
  •  
  • 125.00 -33.56% by 13/02/2025
13/02/2024Analyses:0
0
F

Fortum Oyj

Hold by alpha

Fortum is an energy supplier with base-load and flexible energy capacity operating in the Scandinavian market. 90% of EBITDA results from 45TWh low CO2 hydro and nuclear power generation. The company reported €1.32/share for continuing business that gives a valuation of 9x PE at €12. This included a strong Q1'23. A conservative forward looking estimate is 10-12x PE. 2023 dividend €1.15 results in a 9% yield with two installments in 2024. Which I also expect for the coming two years given the capital allocation and CAPEX. Fortum owns future-proof energy capacity and has a strong balance-sheet. I expect the company to improve margins and ROE as the demand for reliable green-electricity continues to grow. A long-term hold with a good dividend yield.
  •  
  • 13.50 +14.75% by 15/02/2025
07/02/2024Analyses:11
1
N

Nordic Semiconductor ASA

Monitor by alpha

Nordic Semiconductor is a semiconductor supplier for ultra-low power communication electronics. Its target markets; IoT, smart-home and short range communication, are interesting for future growth. Current valuation is relative high, 35x PE TTM, as earnings declined with 65% in 2023. The share price has not fully adjusted and I expect a further decline. A company to keep on the watch-list for 2024 as semi-conductor/IOT investment when the valuation becomes more attractive.
  •  
  • 65.00 -19.55% by 01/09/2024
07/02/2024Analyses:0
0
D

Danske Bank A/S

Buy by micke

Danske Bank is Denmark’s largest bank, which gives scale and market advantages. Current price 195DKK today (2024-02-02) +5% after releasing 2023Q4 earnings and proposing a dividend of 14.5DKK, which is in sharp contrast to previous earnings and dividends which where muted/negative due to AML in the Baltic. The Baltic AML issue is now history and the bank can focus on delivering value to customers and shareholders. The share has seen significant rise (~100%) after the AML issue was finalized. I see further but more limited potential for the share to reach 240DKK, and good dividend, it is still a buy.
  •  
  • 240.00 +22.26% by 02/02/2025
02/02/2024Analyses:3
2
GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
  •  
  • 20.00 -30.60% by 01/08/2024
01/02/2024Analyses:3
0
Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$225M) and technical services ($50M) with customer in the US, Asia and Europe. It is the only company licensed by the US Department of Energy to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). The company is valued at <20x PE TTM after Q3'23. My estimated earning for 2023 are $3.5/share (incl. $15M from pension deal) and $4-5/share in 2024 as a result from Phase 2 in the HALUE contract. Earnings are volatile and the investment is a high risk bet on a trend for the next 25 years supported by US National Security policy to turn the clock back 40 years! My thesis is that demand for HALUE and the general momentum in the nuclear energy market will support the share price going forward.
  •  
  • 75.00 +37.72% by 01/06/2024
31/01/2024Analyses:15
2
Nordic Paper is a paper producer for Kraft paper (55%) and grease paper (45%). The company has a well diversified product portfolio and a customer mix across industries which supports quality of earnings. Although the demand from construction business is low. The business is a quality investment with 50% gross margin and 30% ROE that operates in market supported by long-term trends like; sustainability, global middle-class growth and e-commerce. In 2022 and 2023 the company has delivered a high dividend yield (>10%). Nordic Paper is a quality holding for the long term. In the short term I expect a correction that could offer buying opportunity around 35kr.
  •  
  • 35.00 -17.55% by 01/09/2024
30/01/2024Analyses:13
2
S

Swedbank AB (publ)

Buy by micke

The bank is making good profits. EPS2023=30SEK, up from EPS2022=19SEK. Net income was down in 2022Q4 compared to Q3. Operating income for 2023Q4 was up, but costs and tax where up more vs 2023Q3. Interest rates will probably be declining during 2024, which should lower NII but some growth and higher mortgage margins could give some relief. My high level guess is EPS2024=28SEK, slightly lower than EPS2023. Dividend for 2023 (~50% of EPS) to will be 15,5 SEK, which is 7% (share price 214SEK). If/When US investigations are ended there is a risk of high fines, but probably they will be reasonable, and dividend percentage can go back to 70%. I assume share price will increase when this is finalized, which together with dividend, are my main reasons for owning Swedbank shares.
  •  
  • 245.00 +14.86% by 01/09/2024
30/01/2024Analyses:6
1
 |