Alphaboard - research by investors.

BioArctic AB (publ)

Healthcare
BIOA-B.ST: 

Research

  • Buy by Alpha (08/11/2023)
    • 400.00 +73.76% by 01/06/2025

    BioArctic is the first company that gained full commercial approval for an Alzheimer disease (modification) treatment (in the US). Together with partner Eisai it will commercialize the large global AD market with approvals pending around the globe. Revenue in 2023 is mainly driven by milestone payments. In 2024 revenue will be driven by patents enrollment at $26.5k/year. With the uncertainty of the roll-out and higher operational costs the earnings for 2023 and 2024 are estimated around break-even. In the coming 12 months continued high volatility can be expected; with buying opportunities (<250kr).

  • Business (6)

    • Parkinson's/CNS

      The project portfolio contains medication to address Parkinson's disease (late Phase 1) and other Central Nervous System (CNS) disorders like ALS (pre-clinical).

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Brain transporter

      Long-term potential in preclinical Brain-transporter (BT) to transport anti-body proteins into the brain for third-parties (other deceases). A patented technology (until 2037) to generally improve transportation of pharmaceuticals across the blood-brain barrier for improved efficacy to target brain diseases with reduced side-effects.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Eisai collaboration

      BioArctic and Eisai have a long-term collaboration, starting 2005, on the development and commercialization of Alzheimer disease treatments. Biogen a former US competitor and Eisai partner terminated its Aduhelm (aducanumab) product in June 2022 and now markets LEQEMBI (lecanemab) from Eisai/BioArctic. BioArctic receives royalties (high single digit %) and another $100M milestones payments (Q2'23) for the Lecanemab license to Eisai in Alzheimer treatment. BioArctic retains the rights to the drug for other treatments.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • US market Alzheimer DMT

      The FDA granted Eisai in July 2023 full marketing approval for LEQEMBI/Lecanemab as disease modification treatment (DMT). CMS confirmed Medicare coverage of the drug for early Alzheimer disease treatment which requires participation in the registry to collect more evidence (a normal procedure). Eisai aims to have 10k patients enrolled in Q1 2024 at $26.500/year (25.000kr royalties).

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Other approval

      Applications processes have been started in other regions with planned approval; Japan (Sept 2023), EU (Q1'24), China (Q1'24), UK, South-Korea and Canada.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Abbvie partnership with total value of $755M for Parkinson disease which is currently a Phase-1 study (realized $130M). Phase 1 results support Phase 2 development with dosing once per month. A Phase 2 start is not planned yet.

      27/10/2021 by ALPHA｜
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  • Financial (2)

    • Income 2023-2024

      In 2023 the company is expected to realize further milestones and receive initial royalties. Revenue will be 400-500MSEK with operational cost guidance of 330-380MSEK. Earnings for 2024 are no longer driven by milestones and will mainly depend on patient roll-out in the US, and other approved regions (400-500MSEK). Earnings guidance is around 100MSEK for the 2023-2024.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Cash balance

      The cash balance Q2 2023 is 1BSEK. This covers almost 3 years of operational expenses in a scenario without revenue.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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  • Risks (3)

    • Lilly's Donanemab

      Eli Lilly develops an Alzheimer disease treatment based on Donanemab that is currently in Phase 3 study. FDA approval is expected in early 2024. The medical results are similar to Lecanemab although for some patient groups effects are higher, but also are the bi-effects. It would be a risk when Donanemab's effect proves to be significantly higher without a higher patient risk profile.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Patent expiration

      The patent portfolio contains 13 patent families and 240 applications. The Lecanemab patent expires in 2032 although market exclusivity could be up to 12 years (2035). The long-term growth and value depends on wider development of the portfolio to generate revenue in 2030's.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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    • Nordic market

      BioArctic builds its own marketing and sales organization for the Nordic market, in preparation for European approval, which will increase costs.

      19/07/2023 by ALPHA｜
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