Adecoagro is an agricultural company producing food and renewable energy. The business segments are Sugar, Ethanol and Energy (65% with 30% EBIT margin) and other Farming (35% with around 10% EBIT margin).

In 2022 South America experienced an extreme drought which impacted farming production. In Q1'23 the good sugar, ethanol and energy results compensated for the lower farming results mainly in crops (caused by La Nina drought and higher costs). With higher sugar prices in 2023 earnings are expected to improve. The expected El Ninjo in 2023 should improve crops results in 2024.

Q4'22 the earnings dropped, but on average the company makes around $1 per share in the last 36M. With higher sugar prices, energy prices and better weather conditions margins and earnings are expected to improve. My expectation is that the share price sets a new all-time high this year.

2023-06-21 9.99USD. The risk for shortage does not seem to be a threat as of now. I find the financial reports a bit hard to understand and see some risks with this, and thus taking a bit hesitant approach without a clear goal.

2022-03-13 12.34USD. I guess that there will be a global shortage of agricultural products during this and next year which will drive up prices and profits. I also guess that the oil will remain at $90-$100 levels which will keep ethanol price high. There is a lot of uncertainty but in other aspects an agricultural company gives nice diversity to my stock portfolio.