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A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Monitor by Alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
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  • 17.50 +11.82% by 01/03/2025
22/08/2024｜Analyses:8
3
F

Fortum Oyj

Hold by Alpha

Fortum is a defensive utilities investment in a quality company with a strong balance sheet. The strategy is to focus on core business with improved cost efficiency. In the energy market Fortum is well positioned providing base-load and flexible energy capacity in the Scandinavian market. 90% of EBITDA results from 45TWh low CO2 hydro and nuclear power generation. Fortum is valued at 10x TTM earnings, including a relative weak Q3'23 and Q2'24 (priced at €14,5). The share is fairly priced with 8% dividend yield and some upside potential (market performance).
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  • 15.50 +9.85% by 15/04/2025
20/08/2024｜Analyses:12
1
R

Railcare Group AB (publ)

Sell by Alpha

Railcare is a defensive investment in infrastructure services for rail transport. At >15x PE the Swedish railroad services market potential is priced in. Recent analyst recommendations increased popularity with its effect on the share price. In the second half of 2024 I expect a 20% correction after strong share price development in the last 12 months. Especially as the Q2'24 results showed a significant drop in margins.
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  • 24.00 -21.82% by 01/03/2025
15/08/2024｜Analyses:7
2
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Hold by Alpha

Adecoagro is a non-cyclical investment into industrial scale agriculture in South America. The business segments are Sugar, Ethanol and Energy (50% with over 50% EBITDA margin) and other Farming (50% with around 15% EBITDA margin). In 2024 the company has a 3% dividend yield plus 9% share repurchase program. This would have a positive effect on future ROE and EPS. Combined with <6x PE for TTM earnings the company is relative cheap (20% margin of safety).
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  • 15.00 +29.53% by 14/08/2025
14/08/2024｜Analyses:9
2
S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Hold by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an investment in long-term contracts and cash-flow in the oil industry. SBM Offshore is an offshore technology company delivering FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) platforms (that produce around 2 million barrels per day). After a positive Q2'24 the company increased 2024 targets and doubled its share repurchase program. My investment case is based on the Lease and Operate business with double digit growth and 50% EBITDA margin. This provides a sound basis for annual cash flow. The company is undervalued at 6x 2023 EPS. Priced at €16 the company returns a 10% cash yield with >20% margin of safety on its 2025 earnings potential.
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  • 20.00 +24.22% by 02/05/2025
09/08/2024｜Analyses:11
1
L

Centrus Energy Corp.

Buy by Alpha

The Centrus investment case is a bet on the revival of nuclear energy, and winning government support from >3B$ in RFP's by the US DoE. Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$200M) and technical services (>$100M) with customers in the US, Asia and Europe. The company operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for many types of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. My thesis is that future demand for HALUE and the sanctions on Russian LEU (30% of US/EU demand) are billion dollar growth opportunities for Centrus in the coming 5 years. Given that growth potential the company is undervalued at 10x PE (est 2024).
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  • 75.00 +89.78% by 01/12/2024
07/08/2024｜Analyses:16
2
G

Garo Aktiebolag (publ)

Short-list by Alpha

GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
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07/08/2024｜Analyses:3
0
F

Flow Traders N.V.

Buy by Alpha

Flow Traders is a leading global liquidity provider in exchange traded products. This Dutch company operates globally with hubs in Europe, the US and APAC. It provides liquidity in all major markets and exchanges 24 hours a day for all major asset classes; equity, bonds, currency, commodity and digital assets. Net Trading Income (NTI) is correlated to the volatility index (VIX). NTI was muted in recent years but is be expected to rise with recently increased volatility. The VIX reached a post-COVID peak above 60. Flow Traders is an interesting investment case given the current market turmoil, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. My estimate is €4-5 EPS for 2024 which values the company at around 4x earnings. Furthermore the company strategy aims for long-term shareholder value creation.
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  • 25.00 +38.43% by 05/08/2025
07/08/2024｜Analyses:7
0
B

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft

Buy by micke

Bayer is in an interesting turn around phase. The Bayer stock has dropped 50% in a year, down from €52 to €26. Bayer has several major problems. One major problem is lawsuits regarding Roundup, there seams to be potential to manage damages and a court has set down initial claims. An other major problem is within pharma, where patents for major drugs are expiring. The new CEO Bill Anderson is reorganising Bayer (with Dynamic Shared Ownership), reducing management layers with the goal of being a more result orientated and agile company. I see can see a negative scenario with a declining business. But I can also see a positive scenario where the CEO manages to cut costs and increase innovation and in that case the current share price is too low and could double over a some years.
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  • 35.00 +29.73% by 16/07/2025
18/07/2024｜Analyses:3
0
N

Nordic Semiconductor ASA

Sell by Alpha

Nordic Semiconductor is a semiconductor supplier for ultra-low power communication electronics. Its target markets; IoT, smart-home and short range communication, are interesting for future growth. The company was valued 35x PE in 2023, as its revenue declined with 35% and its earnings declined with 65% in 2023. This turned worse in Q1-2024 as TTM revenue declined another 35% and the company made a loss. The market awarded this with 60% increase in share price. A company to keep on the watch-list for 2024 as semi-conductor/IOT investment when the mispricing gets corrected. For now I expect at least a 50% correction from 140 NOK.
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  • 65.00 -50.59% by 01/04/2025
25/06/2024｜Analyses:0
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