Shared analysis and targets.

Improve analysis for better investment decisions.

Work together with peer investors to counter your biases.

Monitor your investment decisions with timely alerts.

T

Tesla, Inc.

Sell by Alpha

Tesla is a BEV car company that is loosing its early competitive advantage to Chinese producers and traditional car makers. USP and pricing power deteriorate(d). Chinese brands are gaining market share in China and Europe. In addition the overall BEV market is expected to have head-winds in 2024. CEO Elon Musk announced that growth is at risk and even asked for protective tariffs in the US. Besides the Tesla's challenges, Elon Musk has other things on his mind. In the way the Tesla is managed the company is not investable. Tesla is over-valued at 40x PE. I expect a further correction towards Dec'22 low of $125 as more institutional investors will close their positions.
  •  
  • 125.00 -32.38% by 13/02/2025
18/06/2024Analyses:0
0
Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label to protect the kidney function in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition. 28/5 Japanese Asahi Kasei Corporation offered 208kr per share (a 80% premium). The share price was relative low at 113kr as a result from around 7% short positions. The offer is accepted by major shareholders and due diligence started. Let's see how the share price reacts when short positions must be covered in the coming months. My target includes a opportunistic premium.
  •  
  • 225.00 +9.97% by 01/10/2024
29/05/2024Analyses:15
2
Railcare is an industrial company in the railway business including transport (50%), contracting & services (30%) and sales of equipment (machines & tech). The company is mainly active in Sweden and the UK (8%). In 2023 the company realized 13.5% revenue growth and almost 20% in earning per share. A defensive investment with 25% upside potential in the next 4 years plus 3% annual dividend yield. The very low liquidity is a risk, and can also offer pricing opportunity. In the short-term I expect a 15% correction after strong share price development in 2024.
  •  
  • 24.00 -12.41% by 01/03/2025
20/05/2024Analyses:4
2
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Hold by Alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
  •  
  • 17.50 +13.56% by 01/03/2025
26/04/2024Analyses:8
3
S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Buy by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an offshore company in the energy sector mainly delivering FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) technology to the oil industry, to produce around 2 million barrels per day. Priced at €14 SBM returns 8.5% cash yield to shareholders. The company has a $30B backlog with signed contracts providing good insight in future cash-flow. I expect €2.5 EPS for the coming years as the Lease and Operate business continues to grow. The Debt/Equity ratio is potentially a concern although debt payments are covered by long-term contracts with top-tier clients and debt is 50% non-recourse. The investment has room to grow from current 6x expected earnings for 2024 as the market gains confidence in the business model (potentially towards 8x €3 EPS).
  •  
  • 20.00 +48.26% by 02/05/2025
26/04/2024Analyses:11
1
Softronic AB provides a wide selection of IT and management services in Sweden. The company offers E-commerce platform, insurance systems, digitalization, E-health, digital sales platform, scanning, modern outsourcing, managed services, cyber defense as services and customer care system. The last quarter was wake with only 3,3% growth, but I expect that the consultant market will start go improve after summer. P/E is current 13,8 and that is historically low
  •  
26/04/2024Analyses:1
1
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Short-list by micke

A profitable bank that has high dividend, and share buy backs. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro. ABN has 50% dividend policy ~10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level. 2023Q4 indicates that this is a good reference for 2024, i.e. EPS24=0.6*4=2.4, which would give PE24=6,7 which is good and will generate good return on capital without much risk in my opinion. I don't expect much increase in the share price since the Dutch state wants to sell off its large stake. Taking in to account the drop for sv. Handelsbanken on a soft report and ABN potentially has higher costs in 2024Q1 than 2023Q4, not sure about what rating to give, analysts are quite negative.
  •  
  • 16.00 +3.83% by 21/04/2025
25/04/2024Analyses:9
1
DB had an improvement program running from 2019 to 2022, there is a follow up program until 2025, and DB continues to deliver good results, with significant improvement possibility (Nordic banks are at C/I=50%). There will be significant earning improvements. Capital return will probably increase by 50% YoY until 2026. "guidance of € 1.00 per share in respect of FY 2025, subject to 50% payout". DB has developed well over the last year, up from €9. The current share price around €15, P/E=4,77, gives good room for further increased share price.
  •  
  • 20.00 +36.43% by 20/04/2025
22/04/2024Analyses:6
2
V

AB Volvo (publ)

Buy by micke

A very well managed company which should be able to continue to deliver fine results in the long run. The main business is trucks with construction equipment as a runner up. Currently Volvo (and Traton) expect the demand to normalise, which means that expected sales for 2024 are declining probably around 10% from record high in 2023. Both Volvo and Traton talk about defending margins. In my opinion Volvo seems to be the best trucking company now, the valuation seems low compared to many other industries but higher than its competitor Traton which is more of a turnaround case. The big question is how profits will develop. Long term I think AB Volvo is a buy, but short term not sure. After some consideration I think it is a buy now, there is a reasonably good chans that Volvo will be less cyclical going forward and there for motivated P/E should increase while I don't expect profits to drop that much even as volumes decrease 10%.
  •  
  • 320.00 +20.71% by 04/04/2025
20/04/2024Analyses:7
1
N

Norion Bank AB

Buy by micke

A bit higher risk than traditional big banks, since it works with credits that have higher risk and higher yield. The P/E=7.3 and the business seam to growth with low risk. Norion could be negative effected by lower rates, but it is hard to determine in what way. On the negative side the margins might be a bit lower, potentially the need for mortgages will decrease. On the positive side clients defaulting on loans should be lower and Norion’s funding cost would go down. All in all I see a P/E around 10 as a good buy.
  •  
  • 56.00 +29.33% by 06/04/2025
08/04/2024Analyses:4
2
Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$200M) and technical services (>$100M) with customers in the US, Asia and Europe. The company operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. After the Q4'2023 >100% earnings beat the price dropped 25% in Q1'24. Centrus is currently trading at 10x my estimated $4/share in 2024. My thesis is that demand for HALUE and the latest sanctions on Russian LEU are strong growth opportunities for Centrus. The investment is however a long-term bet on the revival of nuclear energy with modern SMRs supported by US National Security policy, and threatened by geo-politics!
  •  
  • 75.00 +79.90% by 01/10/2024
04/04/2024Analyses:17
2
R

Rana Gruber ASA

Short-list by Jocke

Rana Gruber ASA is a sustainable iron ore producer in Norway. It is engaged in the excavation, processing and sale of iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite and iron oxide pigments. Hematite is used for iron and steel production in smelters in Europe and magnetite is used in industrial water purification processes. Iron ore production takes place at the group's iron ore deposits at Ortfjell as open pit production and underground mining. It produces and sells iron ore concentrate and primarily serves steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The majority of revenue from contracts with customers is derived from sales of hematite products. P/E 5,86, (increase from 4,1 2021) P/E* - P/B 3,21 P/S 1,50 Utdelning/aktie 4,27 NOK EPS 13,21 NOK Direktavkastning 5,52% EPS tillväxt* - The P/E has increased but it has a high ranking according to the magic formula (place 60) and I think it can be interesting to follow the progress
  •  
02/04/2024Analyses:0
2