Commerzbank continues to deliver and repeat their plans to increase profits. I think Commerzbank’s result estimates are reasonable, looking back a few years their estimates have been conservative. Long term I think banks that are well run, such as Commerzbank, should be traded at P/E=10 or a bit higher on long term profits. The 24Q4 outlook for 2025, Net result ~€2.4bn – respectively ~€2.8bn before restructuring charges. For FY2025 there will be lower costs for CHF loans in PL, I guess ~500M, and no significant costs after FY2025. Since these costs where 1bn in FY2024 I suspect profits could be higher that estimated for FY2025, maybe closer to 3bn and increasing years ahead, especially mBank in PL could keep on expanding. With these numbers I see that the share price should be around €26 during 2025 and a potential to reach €35 in a couple of years. Short term the share price can be volatility, for example Uni-Credits interest in Commerzbank or not. Commerzbank will be returning (buy back and dividend) ~100% of profits before restructuring costs for FY2025.

Commerzbank's restructuring pressures current profits. The market expects profits to recover 2023/2024. The historical profit margin is at best 10% in the last 10 years (compared to 25-45% for Swedish banks). With a market cap of €8B the shares are close to 10x EV/E in 2024 (€0.70 per share). This is a fair value for the sector with the turn-around and market risks for Commerz bank. Sentiment and momentum could keep the share price moving.