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A

Alzinova AB (publ)

Author: Alpha

Alzinova potentially has a promising vaccine for Alzheimer in its portfolio. The company plans to sign a partner agreement before Phase 2 trial which could boost the share price. However key stakeholders have a questionable reputation from involvement in; Vivesto (Oasmia), Anima Group, Peptonic Medical and Rosland Capital. Alzinova's last right issue resulted in 50% dilution as the number of shares doubled. The underwriters, including existing shareholders, received a 20% fee for the underwritten amount, almost 10% of the company at a market cap of 100Mkr. Negative given the background of the people behind the company.
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20/08/2024｜Analyses:0
0
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Hold by Alpha

Adecoagro is a non-cyclical investment into industrial scale agriculture in South America. The business segments are Sugar, Ethanol and Energy (50% with over 50% EBITDA margin) and other Farming (50% with around 15% EBITDA margin). In 2024 the company has a 3% dividend yield plus 9% share repurchase program. This would have a positive effect on future ROE and EPS. Combined with <6x PE for TTM earnings the company is relative cheap (20% margin of safety).
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14/08/2024｜Analyses:9
2
S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Hold by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an investment in long-term contracts and cash-flow in the oil industry. The offshore company builds and operates FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) platforms (that produce around 2 million barrels per day). After a positive Q2'24 the company increased 2024 targets and doubled its share repurchase program. The investment case is based on the Lease and Operate business with double digit growth and 50% EBITDA margin. This segment provides a sound basis for annual cash flow. The company is undervalued at 6x 2023 EPS. Priced at €16 the company returns a 10% cash yield with >20% margin of safety on its 2025 earnings potential.
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09/08/2024｜Analyses:11
1
G

Garo Aktiebolag (publ)

Short-list by Alpha

GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
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07/08/2024｜Analyses:3
0
B

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft

Buy by micke

Bayer is in an interesting turn around phase. The Bayer stock has dropped 50% in a year, down from €52 to €26. Bayer has several major problems. One major problem is lawsuits regarding Roundup, there seams to be potential to manage damages and a court has set down initial claims. An other major problem is within pharma, where patents for major drugs are expiring. The new CEO Bill Anderson is reorganising Bayer (with Dynamic Shared Ownership), reducing management layers with the goal of being a more result orientated and agile company. I see can see a negative scenario with a declining business. But I can also see a positive scenario where the CEO manages to cut costs and increase innovation and in that case the current share price is too low and could double over a some years.
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18/07/2024｜Analyses:3
0
N

Nordic Semiconductor ASA

Sell by Alpha

Nordic Semiconductor is a semiconductor supplier for ultra-low power communication electronics. Its target markets; IoT, smart-home and short range communication, are interesting for future growth. The company was valued 35x PE in 2023, as its revenue declined with 35% and its earnings declined with 65% in 2023. This turned worse in Q1-2024 as TTM revenue declined another 35% and the company made a loss. The market awarded this with 60% increase in share price. A company to keep on the watch-list for 2024 as semi-conductor/IOT investment when the mispricing gets corrected. For now I expect at least a 50% correction from 140 NOK.
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25/06/2024｜Analyses:0
0
T

Tesla, Inc.

Sell by Alpha

Tesla is a BEV car company that is loosing its early competitive advantage to Chinese producers and traditional car makers. USP and pricing power deteriorate(d). Chinese brands are gaining market share in China and Europe. In addition the overall BEV market is expected to have head-winds in 2024. CEO Elon Musk announced that growth is at risk and even asked for protective tariffs in the US. Besides the Tesla's challenges, Elon Musk has other things on his mind. In the way the Tesla is managed the company is not investable. Tesla is over-valued at 40x PE. I expect a further correction towards Dec'22 low of $125 as more institutional investors will close their positions.
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18/06/2024｜Analyses:0
0
C

Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ)

Author: Alpha

Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label to protect the kidney function in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition. 28/5 Japanese Asahi Kasei Corporation offered 208kr per share (a 80% premium). The share price was relative low at 113kr as a result from around 7% short positions. The offer is accepted by major shareholders and due diligence started. Let's see how the share price reacts when short positions must be covered in the coming months. My target includes a opportunistic premium.
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29/05/2024｜Analyses:15
3
S

Softronic AB (publ)

Buy by Jocke

Softronic AB provides a wide selection of IT and management services in Sweden. The company offers E-commerce platform, insurance systems, digitalization, E-health, digital sales platform, scanning, modern outsourcing, managed services, cyber defense as services and customer care system. The last quarter was wake with only 3,3% growth, but I expect that the consultant market will start go improve after summer. P/E is current 13,8 and that is historically low
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26/04/2024｜Analyses:1
1
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Monitor by micke

A profitable bank that has high dividend, and share buy backs. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro. ABN has 50% dividend policy ~10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level. 2023Q4 indicates that this is a good reference for 2024, i.e. EPS24=0.6*4=2.4, which would give PE24=6,7 which is good and will generate good return on capital without much risk in my opinion. I don't expect much increase in the share price since the Dutch state wants to sell off its large stake. Taking in to account the drop for sv. Handelsbanken on a soft report and ABN potentially has higher costs in 2024Q1 than 2023Q4, not sure about what rating to give, analysts are quite negative.
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25/04/2024｜Analyses:9
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