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S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Hold by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an investment in long-term contracts and cash-flow in the oil industry. The offshore company builds and operates FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) platforms (that produce around 2 million barrels per day). After a positive Q2'24 the company increased 2024 targets and doubled its share repurchase program. The investment case is based on the Lease and Operate business with double digit growth and 50% EBITDA margin. This segment provides a sound basis for annual cash flow. The company is undervalued at 6x 2023 EPS. Priced at €16 the company returns a 10% cash yield with >20% margin of safety on its 2025 earnings potential.
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  • 20.00 +18.34% by 02/05/2025
09/08/2024｜Analyses:11
1
G

Garo Aktiebolag (publ)

Short-list by Alpha

GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
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07/08/2024｜Analyses:3
0
F

Flow Traders N.V.

Buy by Alpha

Flow Traders is a leading global liquidity provider in exchange traded products. This Dutch company operates globally with hubs in Europe, the US and APAC. It provides liquidity in all major markets and exchanges 24 hours a day for all major asset classes; equity, bonds, currency, commodity and digital assets. Net Trading Income (NTI) is correlated to the volatility index (VIX). NTI was muted in recent years but is be expected to rise with recently increased volatility. The VIX reached a post-COVID peak above 60. Flow Traders is an interesting investment case given the current market turmoil, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. My estimate is €4-5 EPS for 2024 which values the company at around 4x earnings. Furthermore the company strategy aims for long-term shareholder value creation.
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  • 25.00 +18.60% by 05/08/2025
07/08/2024｜Analyses:7
0
B

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft

Buy by micke

Bayer is in an interesting turn around phase. The Bayer stock has dropped 50% in a year, down from €52 to €26. Bayer has several major problems. One major problem is lawsuits regarding Roundup, there seams to be potential to manage damages and a court has set down initial claims. An other major problem is within pharma, where patents for major drugs are expiring. The new CEO Bill Anderson is reorganising Bayer (with Dynamic Shared Ownership), reducing management layers with the goal of being a more result orientated and agile company. I see can see a negative scenario with a declining business. But I can also see a positive scenario where the CEO manages to cut costs and increase innovation and in that case the current share price is too low and could double over a some years.
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  • 35.00 +35.92% by 16/07/2025
18/07/2024｜Analyses:3
0
N

Nordic Semiconductor ASA

Sell by Alpha

Nordic Semiconductor is a semiconductor supplier for ultra-low power communication electronics. Its target markets; IoT, smart-home and short range communication, are interesting for future growth. The company was valued 35x PE in 2023, as its revenue declined with 35% and its earnings declined with 65% in 2023. This turned worse in Q1-2024 as TTM revenue declined another 35% and the company made a loss. The market awarded this with 60% increase in share price. A company to keep on the watch-list for 2024 as semi-conductor/IOT investment when the mispricing gets corrected. For now I expect at least a 50% correction from 140 NOK.
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  • 65.00 -34.01% by 01/04/2025
25/06/2024｜Analyses:0
0
T

Tesla, Inc.

Sell by Alpha

Tesla is a BEV car company that is loosing its early competitive advantage to Chinese producers and traditional car makers. USP and pricing power deteriorate(d). Chinese brands are gaining market share in China and Europe. In addition the overall BEV market is expected to have head-winds in 2024. CEO Elon Musk announced that growth is at risk and even asked for protective tariffs in the US. Besides the Tesla's challenges, Elon Musk has other things on his mind. In the way the Tesla is managed the company is not investable. Tesla is over-valued at 40x PE. I expect a further correction towards Dec'22 low of $125 as more institutional investors will close their positions.
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  • 125.00 -52.01% by 13/02/2025
18/06/2024｜Analyses:0
0
C

Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ)

Archived by Alpha

Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label to protect the kidney function in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition. 28/5 Japanese Asahi Kasei Corporation offered 208kr per share (a 80% premium). The share price was relative low at 113kr as a result from around 7% short positions. The offer is accepted by major shareholders and due diligence started. Let's see how the share price reacts when short positions must be covered in the coming months. My target includes a opportunistic premium.
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29/05/2024｜Analyses:15
3
S

Softronic AB (publ)

Buy by Jocke

Softronic AB provides a wide selection of IT and management services in Sweden. The company offers E-commerce platform, insurance systems, digitalization, E-health, digital sales platform, scanning, modern outsourcing, managed services, cyber defense as services and customer care system. The last quarter was wake with only 3,3% growth, but I expect that the consultant market will start go improve after summer. P/E is current 13,8 and that is historically low
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26/04/2024｜Analyses:1
1
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Short-list by micke

A profitable bank that has high dividend, and share buy backs. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro. ABN has 50% dividend policy ~10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level. 2023Q4 indicates that this is a good reference for 2024, i.e. EPS24=0.6*4=2.4, which would give PE24=6,7 which is good and will generate good return on capital without much risk in my opinion. I don't expect much increase in the share price since the Dutch state wants to sell off its large stake. Taking in to account the drop for sv. Handelsbanken on a soft report and ABN potentially has higher costs in 2024Q1 than 2023Q4, not sure about what rating to give, analysts are quite negative.
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  • 16.00 +5.06% by 21/04/2025
25/04/2024｜Analyses:9
1
D

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Buy by micke

DB had an improvement program running from 2019 to 2022, there is a follow up program until 2025, and DB continues to deliver good results, with significant improvement possibility (Nordic banks are at C/I=50%). There will be significant earning improvements. Capital return will probably increase by 50% YoY until 2026. "guidance of € 1.00 per share in respect of FY 2025, subject to 50% payout". DB has developed well over the last year, up from €9. The current share price around €15, P/E=4,77, gives good room for further increased share price.
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  • 20.00 +26.18% by 20/04/2025
22/04/2024｜Analyses:8
2
V

AB Volvo (publ)

Buy by micke

A very well managed company which should be able to continue to deliver fine results in the long run. The main business is trucks with construction equipment as a runner up. Currently Volvo (and Traton) expect the demand to normalise, which means that expected sales for 2024 are declining probably around 10% from record high in 2023. Both Volvo and Traton talk about defending margins. In my opinion Volvo seems to be the best trucking company now, the valuation seems low compared to many other industries but higher than its competitor Traton which is more of a turnaround case. The big question is how profits will develop. Long term I think AB Volvo is a buy, but short term not sure. After some consideration I think it is a buy now, there is a reasonably good chans that Volvo will be less cyclical going forward and there for motivated P/E should increase while I don't expect profits to drop that much even as volumes decrease 10%.
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  • 320.00 +18.69% by 04/04/2025
20/04/2024｜Analyses:7
1