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E

Enea AB (publ)

Buy by micke

ENEA is niche player with several software products within telecom 5G and Cyber security. The company has struggled with slow adoption of there 5G network offerings. Telecom operators have been doing lower investments than anticipated by vendors. The ENEA CEO was replaced and major write downs in 2023Q2. Share buy backs 2023Q3 and 2023Q4, seems like a good move due to good cash-flow and low valuation. The stock seems like a potential turn-around with high risk and potential for the next years. Today (2024-01-10) at 58.80, I think it is a BUY, with high potential and high risk.
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  • 80.00 +36.05% by 10/01/2025
10/01/2024Analyses:9
1
N

Nordea Bank Abp

Buy by micke

The profits and share price have developed well over the last 2 years with higher rates. My assumption is that 2023Q4 will be quite similar to Q3. EPS 2023Q3=€0.38. EPS2023est=1.44. Dividend-est:1.44*0.7=€1.01. Current share price is 11.42 (2024-01-10) which gives annual 8,9% yield. PE24=8.16 which is good, since Nordea normally trades around PE=10, which gives about 20% potential. The market seems quite convinced that interest rates will drop in 2024 and that will drive down NII and profits, I think profits may remain almost on 2023 levels the coming years. The downside in my opinion is, that there are other EU banks that are cheaper or may have more potential. But I expect 10-25% total yield in one year, so it is a buy some for stability.
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  • 13.00 +13.72% by 10/01/2025
10/01/2024Analyses:0
1
Ericsson is a global supplier of telecommunication equipment. Its market position and technology moat has not resulted in positive returns for long-term investors, despite global 4G and 5G roll-out. The share price declined 50% in the past decade (apart from temporary highs), and is only 1/10 compared to its all-time high during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. The company has been involved in multiple bribery crises across the globe (incl. with ISIS). The business now has headwinds from the tougher economic climate that also impacts 5G spend. In 2023 the company announced to cut 8.500 headcount (8%) globally. And looking at recent earnings the company has mostly missed analysts expectations. Further downsizing continues in 2024. In my opinion Ericsson does not qualify as quality investment.
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  • 50.00 -15.15% by 01/12/2023
04/12/2023Analyses:2
0
A

L'Air Liquide S.A.

Monitor by Jocke

Air Liquide is the 2nd largest gas company in Europe. Air Liquide operations consist, among other things, of manufacturing and selling gases to areas such as industry, chemistry, electronics, food, environmental care and healthcare. The company operates on a global level. Air Liquide was founded in 1902 and has its headquarters in Paris Europe needs to switch from Russian Gas to other suppliers and that will be beneficial for Air Liquide. If you look at the que figures, the revenue is increasing, and they also have a good cashflow. Since start, Air Liquide has increased its turnover and is still growing. So I see no problem with the P/E being just over 28.
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23/11/2023Analyses:1
2
Hexatronic (HTRO) is a leading fiber optics company. The sales and profits have increased organically and via acquisitions, the share price had a fantastic rise from ~14SEK December 2020 to ~160SEK December 2022, where after the share price has crashed down to ~17SEK (21 Nov 2023), after several disappointing figures during 2023, market overall reevaluating growth, and short sellers (Viceroy Research) describing Hexatronic as uninvestable. On 21 Nov HTRO announced lower expectations on short term ebita margin of 12-14%, the share price dropped 36% that day. The presented numbers are only a part of the problem, investors and analysts lost confidence in the company and it's ability to see the market trends and communicate. HTRO announced that they will lay off 160 FTE. For an opportunistic investor this seems like a good time to do a review of Hexatronic. My guess is EPS25=3SEK, PE25=6 on today's share price of 18 SEK. I think there is good upside potential but with high uncertainty.
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  • 30.00 +67.01% on 09/02/2024
22/11/2023Analyses:8
2
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Buy by micke

A profitable bank that has high dividend, probably share buy backs and, in my opinion too low valuation PE23=5. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro and real estate defaults. If ABN can show that it can deliver on or over targets over time there could be a long term potential of 100% if banks in general get higher valuations. ABN has 50% dividend policy =10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level 13.6%.
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  • 16.00 +27.29% by 17/11/2024
17/11/2023Analyses:9
1
BioArctic is the first company that gained full commercial approval for an Alzheimer disease (modification) treatment (in the US). Together with partner Eisai it will commercialize the large global AD market with approvals pending around the globe. Revenue in 2023 is mainly driven by milestone payments. In 2024 revenue will be driven by patents enrollment at $26.5k/year. With the uncertainty of the roll-out and higher operational costs the earnings for 2023 and 2024 are estimated around break-even. In the coming 12 months continued high volatility can be expected; with buying opportunities (<250kr).
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  • 400.00 +83.49% by 01/06/2025
08/11/2023Analyses:12
1
Upstart runs a Cloud-platform for retail loans with AI technology based credit scoring. The platform connects consumers that apply for loans with banks and other credit providers. Upstart's partner network funds the retail loans. The company did an IPO in December 2020 at $20 and reached $390 in Oct'21. It fell below $15 before rising to $72 in 2023 (+400% YTD). The 2023 run was caused by a (expected) short squeeze from a short interest of 35% in July '23 combined with the ongoing AI-hype. The company targets a traditional market with modern technology and can potentially win a large share of the loans market with TAM >$1 trillion. Sounds like a strategic interesting market, but management does not deliver (yet?)!
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  • 15.00 -49.00% by 01/06/2024
07/11/2023Analyses:6
1
N

Ngenic AB (publ)

Sell by alpha

Ngenic sells technical solutions for energy management directly to consumers, via partners, and to B2B customers. Since the IPO in 2021 the company showed good growth, but from very low numbers (should actually not be listed). Sales is mostly product sales (hardware) and does not result in material recurring revenue. With its cash burn-rate the company requires new funding. Given the shareholders structure and the company performance I expect this to become expensive. The shares will also dilute from the convertible loan of 10.2Mkr in October 2024 (direct or indirect for repayment). Ngenic was on my watch-list for its interesting target market. Changed the rating to sell!
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  • 5.00 -57.98% by 01/04/2024
07/11/2023Analyses:0
0
V

Volkswagen AG

Sell by alpha

Volkswagen is a German carmaker delivering >8 million cars globally of which around 600k electrical vehicles (7%). Global car sales is 25% below all-time high from 2018 due to the Diesel-gate which caused a drop from 8% to 6% in global market share. It looks like the company is recovering being #1 BEV brand in Europe and with 7% global market share. At 4x PE ratio (TTM) and 7% dividend the company looks attractive, but the economic climate is a risk with €55B financial lease on the balance sheet. Market conditions are worsening; with Chinese competition and risk for a down-turn in sales. For Q3'2023 management warns for lower margins due to higher material costs. I stay on the side-line and follow developments as potentially interesting investment for the longer-term EV trend.
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  • 80.00 -22.44% by 01/04/2024
23/10/2023Analyses:2
1
Handelsbanken had a good result 2023Q3 with net earnings of 4.02 SEK/share, slightly up from Q2. My best guess is that we will remain on these profit levels, a small decline in 24/25 when interest rates are lowered, but the bank's growth will compensate for this in a year or two. My approximation is 15 SEK/year net profit, PE23=6.5.The bank normally has a P/E of 10, which gives an upside of about 50%. I think we will see dividends of around 70%*15=10,5SEK, i.e. 10%, dividend yield.
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  • 130.00 +40.57% by 11/06/2024
18/10/2023Analyses:6
2
Strong balance sheet as a result of very strong pulp prices during 2022, hedged electrical prices 2022, and relatively prudent financial management knowing that pulp is a cyclical business. Prices on wood used has increased, i.e. higher costs, due to Ukraine invasion limiting Russian supply to Finland. The pulp prices are declining due to global recession, and will probably continue to decline and/or stay low for some time before they turn up according to Rottneros outlook. My guess is that the share price might continue to drop during Q2 and after the Q2 report where I expect a weak result, and depending on outlook on pulp prices stay low or turn up, where my guess is that it will turn up during the second half of 2023, since the company's finances are overall good with low debt. Short term risks and variations, should be a good long term investment with good total return (10%/year) and low long term risk.
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  • 13.50 +15.58% by 12/10/2024
12/10/2023Analyses:7
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