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N

Norion Bank AB

Buy by micke

A bit higher risk than traditional big banks, since it works with credits that have higher risk and higher yield. The P/E=7.3 and the business seam to growth with low risk. Norion could be negative effected by lower rates, but it is hard to determine in what way. On the negative side the margins might be a bit lower, potentially the need for mortgages will decrease. On the positive side clients defaulting on loans should be lower and Norion’s funding cost would go down. All in all I see a P/E around 10 as a good buy.
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  • 56.00 +34.94% by 06/04/2025
08/04/2024｜Analyses:4
2
L

Centrus Energy Corp.

Buy by Alpha

Centrus is a US based uranium supplier of LEU (>$200M) and technical services (>$100M) with customers in the US, Asia and Europe. The company operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) to produce HALEU (20% U-235) required for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. After the Q4'2023 >100% earnings beat the price dropped 25% in Q1'24. Centrus is currently trading at 10x my estimated $4/share in 2024. My thesis is that demand for HALUE and the latest sanctions on Russian LEU are strong growth opportunities for Centrus. The investment is however a long-term bet on the revival of nuclear energy with modern SMRs supported by US National Security policy, and threatened by geo-politics!
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  • 75.00 +75.69% by 01/10/2024
04/04/2024｜Analyses:17
2
R

Rana Gruber ASA

Short-list by Jocke

Rana Gruber ASA is a sustainable iron ore producer in Norway. It is engaged in the excavation, processing and sale of iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite and iron oxide pigments. Hematite is used for iron and steel production in smelters in Europe and magnetite is used in industrial water purification processes. Iron ore production takes place at the group's iron ore deposits at Ortfjell as open pit production and underground mining. It produces and sells iron ore concentrate and primarily serves steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The majority of revenue from contracts with customers is derived from sales of hematite products. P/E 5,86, (increase from 4,1 2021) P/E* - P/B 3,21 P/S 1,50 Utdelning/aktie 4,27 NOK EPS 13,21 NOK Direktavkastning 5,52% EPS tillväxt* - The P/E has increased but it has a high ranking according to the magic formula (place 60) and I think it can be interesting to follow the progress
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02/04/2024｜Analyses:0
2
A

L'Air Liquide S.A.

Hold by Jocke

Air Liquide is the 2nd largest gas company in Europe. Air Liquide operations consist, among other things, of manufacturing and selling gases to areas such as industry, chemistry, electronics, food, environmental care and healthcare. The company operates on a global level. Air Liquide was founded in 1902 and has its headquarters in Paris Europe needs to switch from Russian Gas to other suppliers and that will be beneficial for Air Liquide. If you look at the que figures, the revenue is increasing, and they also have a good cashflow. Since start, Air Liquide has increased its turnover and is still growing. So I see no problem with the P/E being just over 28.
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01/04/2024｜Analyses:1
2
H

Hexatronic Group AB (publ)

Hold by micke

Hexatronic (HTRO) is a growing fiber optics company. The sales and profits have increased organically and via acquisitions over the previous years, but in 2023Q4 the market is softer with a slight decline in organic revenue while total revenue increase due to acquisitions. The share price had a fantastic rise from ~14SEK December 2020 to ~160SEK December 2022, where after the share price has crashed down to ~17SEK (21 Nov 2023), and probably now has normalized around 30SEK in 2024Q1. There should be low downside and good upside potential if interest rates fall and the fiber market grows. The 2024Q1 and 2024Q2 might be weaker than market expectations, potentially there is an opportunity to temporarily reduce and increase after the 2024Q2, but it could also be a straight line up if the market already calculates on a weaker Q1. Long term it could be a buy, with a ~22% upside in a year, but short term it is a hold for me.
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  • 38.00 +22.47% on 03/05/2024
28/03/2024｜Analyses:8
2
I

INDUS Holding AG

Short-list by micke

Indus Holding focuses on acquisitions of German owner led companies. As I understand it, there are quite many of these companies in Germany that Indus can invest in. The business model should be sustainable for the foreseeable future. Looking at the sales numbers, Indus sales have not grown very much the last 5 years. The share price has gone up 20% during March to €27 (2024-03-27), previous to this there was a share buy back program for 1.1M shares at €23. In the long run Indus could be very good, but I would need to dig further into their investments. Short term I don’t see why the share price just went up 20% so short term I will keep it on my Short List and follow development.
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  • 30.00 +31.29% by 28/03/2025
28/03/2024｜Analyses:4
0
M

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Buy by micke

MBG is generating very good profits and capital returns to share holders. The main profit drivers are luxury ICE cars and vans, where vans did and extra good year. EPS2023 of € 13.46, P/E=5, a proposed dividend of €5.3/share, 40% of EPS, dividend 7.4% (current share price of €71.7). In addition MBG is in the middle of a €4bn buyback program expected to be completed 2024Q3, when a new €3bn program will start with goal of completion 2025Q2. The two buy back programs will total almost 10% of all shares. MBG’s plan is to initiate following share BB in 2025. MBG profit outlook for 2024 is slightly lower than 2023. I think that the Mercedes brand is very valuable and will continue to be, the shift to EV will probably lower profits in 5-10 years but from my perspective that is already in the price, and there is more potential than risk. A reasonable P/E should be at least 10, so even i profits drops there should be potential for significant share price increases.
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  • 82.00 +30.12% by 24/02/2025
10/03/2024｜Analyses:0
3
F

Fortum Oyj

Hold by Alpha

Fortum is an energy supplier with base-load and flexible energy capacity operating in the Scandinavian market. 90% of EBITDA results from 45TWh low CO2 hydro and nuclear power generation. The company reported €1.32/share for continuing business that gives a valuation of 9x PE at €12. This included a strong Q1'23. A conservative forward looking estimate is 10-12x PE. 2023 dividend €1.15 results in a 9% yield with two installments in 2024. Which I also expect for the coming two years given the capital allocation and CAPEX. Fortum owns future-proof energy capacity and has a strong balance-sheet. I expect the company to improve margins and ROE as the demand for reliable green-electricity continues to grow. A long-term hold with a good dividend yield.
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  • 13.50 +15.70% on 13/05/2024
07/02/2024｜Analyses:11
1
D

Danske Bank A/S

Buy by micke

Danske Bank is Denmark’s largest bank, which gives scale and market advantages. Current price 195DKK today (2024-02-02) +5% after releasing 2023Q4 earnings and proposing a dividend of 14.5DKK, which is in sharp contrast to previous earnings and dividends which where muted/negative due to AML in the Baltic. The Baltic AML issue is now history and the bank can focus on delivering value to customers and shareholders. The share has seen significant rise (~100%) after the AML issue was finalized. I see further but more limited potential for the share to reach 240DKK, and good dividend, it is still a buy.
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  • 240.00 +14.67% by 02/02/2025
02/02/2024｜Analyses:3
2
G

Garo Aktiebolag (publ)

Sell by Alpha

GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
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  • 20.00 -25.09% by 01/08/2024
01/02/2024｜Analyses:3
0
N

Nordic Paper Holding AB (publ)

Sell by Alpha

Nordic Paper is a paper producer for Kraft paper (55%) and grease paper (45%). The company has a well diversified product portfolio and a customer mix across industries which supports quality of earnings. Although the demand from construction business is low. The business is a quality investment with 50% gross margin and 30% ROE that operates in market supported by long-term trends like; sustainability, global middle-class growth and e-commerce. In 2022 and 2023 the company has delivered a high dividend yield (>10%). Nordic Paper is a quality holding for the long term. In the short term I expect a correction that could offer buying opportunity around 35kr.
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  • 35.00 -35.00% by 01/09/2024
30/01/2024｜Analyses:13
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