ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Financial Services
ABN.AS

Research

  • Short-list by micke (25/04/2024)
    • 16.00 +0.13% by 21/04/2025

    A profitable bank that has high dividend, and share buy backs. The main drag on valuation is that most banks have low P/E due to market fear of macro. ABN has 50% dividend policy ~10% dividend, and since CET1 ratio is already above target I expect additional share buy backs. RoE target is 10%, which is lower than current level. 2023Q4 indicates that this is a good reference for 2024, i.e. EPS24=0.6*4=2.4, which would give PE24=6,7 which is good and will generate good return on capital without much risk in my opinion. I don't expect much increase in the share price since the Dutch state wants to sell off its large stake. Taking in to account the drop for sv. Handelsbanken on a soft report and ABN potentially has higher costs in 2024Q1 than 2023Q4, not sure about what rating to give, analysts are quite negative.

  • Valuation (1)

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      NLFI is shareholder of ABN AMRO Bank N.V. and de Volksbank N.V. The shares in these corporations were transferred to NLFI by the Dutch State. NLFI as a majority shareholder is currently executing a trading program with the intention to bring its stake down to approximately 40%. NLFI will participate in the buyback pro-rata on the basis of a 40% interest via off-market transactions, thereby avoiding an increase in its relative stake in the company. (2024 program)

      14/02/2024 by MICKE
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  • Business (2)
    • Analyst estimations as shown in the graph from yahoo (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABN.AS?p=ABN.AS&.tsrc=fin-srch) seem to have been too low the last 4 quarters and they are lowering it for 2023Q4. I don't understand why the estimates are so low. At the Q4 presentation (2024-02-14) ABN will give some guidance for the future, and I think they will announce better earnings than analysts predict and probably also share buy backs in 2024. This should give some positive effect on the share price.

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      2024-01-16 example of analyst ratings:

      ABN Amro Bank NV : JP Morgan cuts target price to EUR 13.6 from EUR 15.8
      ABN Amro Bank NV : JP Morgan cuts to underweight from neutral
      18/01/2024 by MICKE
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    • If the rates stay "higher for longer" as many predict, also my prediction, profits will remain high for years. The high profits PE=5, or 20% on your investment, will be shifted out to share holders via dividends and share buy backs.

      17/11/2023 by MICKE
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  • People (1)
    • On the 2023Q3 conference the CEO gave very good answers, the CFO answers could in some cases have been improved. In gereneral they seem like a good management team.

      17/11/2023 by MICKE
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  • Financial (4)
    • Results OVERVIEW

      ABN has delivered a solid performance in the past years. In the current economic climate the conditions are positive for a continued solid performance.

      Period

      NII

      OPEX

      Net income

      ROE

      Comment

      2023-Q4

      1.504

      1.381

      545

      9.5%

      Expected representative for 2024

      2023-Q3

      1.533

      1.228

      759

      13.6%

      Lower NIM and asset sales gains

      2023-Q2

      1.604

      1.137

      870

      16.0%

      €67M impairment release

      2023-Q1

      1.620

      1.406

      523

      9.6%

      Seasonal high regulatory fees

      2022-Q4

      1.504

      1.343

      354

      8.7%


      2022-Q3

      1.314

      1.254

      743

      13.9%


      2022-Q2

      1.232

      1.321

      475

      8.8%


      2022-Q1

      1.266

      1.508

      295

      5.4%

      €62M extra impairment

      28/03/2024 by ALPHA
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    • ABN AMRO Bank posts net profit of EUR 545 million in Q4 2023

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      14/02/2024 by MICKE
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    • RoE target 10%, currently higher. Share buy back when CET1>15%.P/B=0.5.

      17/11/2023 by MICKE
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    • The NII has probably peeked and has been in a declining phase due to customers moving deposits to higher yielding accounts. (On the 2023Q3 investor call CFO said that going forward they expect NII to be flat, or a bit up.

      image

      (graph from 2023Q3 report)

      17/11/2023 by MICKE
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