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C

Commerzbank AG

Monitor by micke

Commerzbank continues to deliver and repeat their plans to increase profits. I think Commerzbank’s result estimates are reasonable, looking back a few years their estimates have been conservative. Long term I think banks that are well run, such as Commerzbank, should be traded at P/E=10 or a bit higher on long term profits. The 24Q4 outlook for 2025, Net result ~€2.4bn – respectively ~€2.8bn before restructuring charges. For FY2025 there will be lower costs for CHF loans in PL, I guess ~500M, and no significant costs after FY2025. Since these costs where 1bn in FY2024 I suspect profits could be higher that estimated for FY2025, maybe closer to 3bn and increasing years ahead, especially mBank in PL could keep on expanding. With these numbers I see a share price potential of 30%, in couple of years, from today’s €19 to €25. Short term the share price can be volatility, for example Uni-Credits interest in Commerzbank or not. Commerzbank will be returning (buy back and dividend) ~100% of profits before restructuring costs for FY2025.
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  • 25.00 +28.21% (13/02/2026)
13/02/2025｜ Analyses:8
2
N

Nordic Paper Holding AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Nordic Paper is a quality company in the paper industry with good pricing power (>50% gross margin) and excellent above 30% ROE. The company produces Kraft paper (~50%) and grease paper (~50%) for a global customer base across industries. The spread in customers is good for the quality of earnings. Nordic Paper operates in markets supported by long-term trends like; sustainability, global middle-class growth and e-commerce. Although the demand from construction business is currently low. Nordic Paper is a quality long term holding. But the risks changed significant with the change of majority shareholder (Strategic Value Partner) in Oct'2024. SVP ownership is now close to 90% and could result in de-listing of the company at below its fair-value.
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  • 50.00 +4.69% (01/05/2026)
05/02/2025｜ Analyses:12
3
B

Boliden AB (publ)

Monitor by micke

Boliden is a well managed company, but generally the profits are very dependent on the metal prices. Zinc, copper, nickel are the most important metals in that order. There is a balancing effects with some gold and silver. Boliden also have smelters which also can balance results. Boliden is a part of the recycling of metals. I see Boliden as a long term investment and would benefit from increased investments in the green sector and if/when global building sector gains pace. The purchase of a mine in Portugal from Lundin Mining will increase production but needs financing, the plan is a share issue and bank loans.
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  • 375.00 +16.46% (06/02/2025)
02/02/2025｜ Analyses:4
2
M

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Hold by micke

MBG has been generating good profits and capital returns to share holders, both dividends and share buy backs. The main profit drivers are luxury ICE cars and vans. MBG had a €4bn buyback program 2024,and has a new €3bn program will start with goal of completion 2025Q2. The two buy back programs will reach the technical limit of 10% of all shares, the CFO has plans to ask the board and AGM 2025 for a new buy back program. MBG has significant value in Daimler trucks which could be transferred to share holders. ICE is an area where MB is very skilled and moving to EV:s there is a significant risk that new competitors mainly from China will change the market. The share prices reflects high risk so MBG could still be a good investment.
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  • 58.00 +9.41% (28/01/2025)
06/12/2024｜ Analyses:1
3
F

Flow Traders N.V.

Hold by Alpha

Flow Traders is an investment into ETP growth and market turmoil. The company is doing well when volumes and volatility peak (like in Aug'24). After a €17 low the share price climbed to €21 in October benefiting from increased volatility. In November the VIX dropped significantly (after the election of Trump) to below 15. Market's sentiment about the (US) economy is currently positive. In this market the annual earning should land around €2,50/share in 2024 and the share price has little upside potential. Flow Traders is however a long term hold as an insurance and for its venture assets. Although the market turmoil insurance has become less attractive without a dividend yield.
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  • 22.50 +6.84% (13/12/2024)
15/11/2024｜ Analyses:8
1
F

Fortum Oyj

Hold by Alpha

Fortum is a defensive utilities investment in a quality company with a strong balance sheet. The company strategy is to focus on core business, and quickly divesting non-core assets. In the energy market Fortum is well positioned providing base-load and flexible energy capacity in the Scandinavian market. 90% of EBITDA results from 45TWh low CO2 hydro and nuclear power generation at competitive prices. Fortum is valued at 10x TTM earnings. The share is fairly priced with 8% dividend yield. The dividend return has the potential to grow based on the low debt level and strong cash position. Over time I expect Fortum to increase EPS from higher margins and revenue growth driven by increased demand.
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  • 15.00 +8.30% (15/07/2025)
30/10/2024｜ Analyses:12
1
L

Centrus Energy Corp.

Author: Alpha

Centrus investment case is a bet on the revival of nuclear energy as part of the global energy transition. The case is supported by recent announcements for nuclear power supply to data-centers. This US based supplier of LEU (>$200M) and enrichment technical services (>$100M), with customers in the US, Asia and Europe, operates the only facility licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to produce HALEU (20% U-235). HALUE is the fuel required for many types of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Centrus is at least 5 years ahead of competition on High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium. Future demand for HALUE and the sanctions on Russian LEU (30% of US/EU demand) are multi-billion dollar growth opportunities for Centrus in the coming 10 years. The US government stimulates investments with RFPs for LEU (3.4B$) and HALUE (2.7B$). In the short term the supply by TENEX is a risk for revenue and profits. In the long term (3-5 years) Centrus can become a global player in nuclear enrichment. A long term hold in the portfolio to invest in the energy transition.
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29/10/2024｜ Analyses:20
3
Q

Qliro AB (publ)

Buy by Alpha

Qliro is a growth opportunity within e-Commerce payments. The payment and check-out service provider turned profitable in 2023 and aims for (international) expansion. Qliro recently issued 50Mkr new shares to invest in further expansion. 2023-2024 results show that the company has good potential for long-term growth. The shares are priced 60x PE TTM. Increasing payment volumes from new merchants should result in a strong growth in EPS in 2024 and the coming years. Assuming continued growth the share has 60% upside potential (50x est. EPS 2024).
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  • 44.00 +61.17% (28/09/2025)
29/10/2024｜ Analyses:10
1
N

Nordic Paper Holding AB (publ)

Short-list by micke

A company specializing in kraft paper for paper bags and packaging etc. and natural grease paper for the food industry. The company has been subject to a new major owner, SVP Strategic Value Partners, with about 48% of the shares. NordicPaper acquired a Canadian company which was included in the reporting from 2022Q. There are yearly seasonal effects from maintenance stops in Q3 at all Nordic Paper production plants. There are ongoing investments in Bäckhammar (about 500MSEK in 2024) which should be completed end of 2025, where after estimated to contribute 100MSEK/year in EBITDA. Energy costs should be lower for Q3, but ~70% hedged. The product volumes seem to be quite stable YoY. Raw material costs are significant part of the product price thus NordicPapers’s focus is mostly on margin. NordicPaper seem like a well managed company, with good profits in a stable market. It could be a good long term investment.
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  • 55.00 +10.62% (25/10/2025)
25/10/2024｜ Analyses:0
1
A

AutoStore Holdings Ltd.

Monitor by micke

Autostore is a tech company within warehouse automation. They seem to have a very good system with good ROI for customers. Installations are done via integration partners and Autostore has many large installations. The company is listed in Oslo but the majority owners are in the US. Valuation was very high at the IPO 2021, driven by high growth within e-commerce during Covid. The growth outlook is now negative for 2024, if/when growth returns the share price will increase. The share isn’t cheap but at 11 NOK Autostore seems reasonably priced with good long term potential.
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03/10/2024｜ Analyses:3
2
N

Norion Bank AB

Buy by Alpha

Norion is a niche bank focused on real-estate financing (50%) and SME (19%). As a niche player in the financial sector the company has better growth opportunities. The bank operates in segments with higher risks and higher margins. When well-managed this results in higher profit margins. The share is valued at <7x PE 2023 with >15% ROE. The company is undervalued at 0.5 PEG and is an attractive value investment (compared to the larger banks).
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  • 52.00 +27.61% (18/09/2025)
18/09/2024｜ Analyses:9
1
B

BioArctic AB (publ)

Buy by Alpha

Bioarctic is a long-term growth investment into a bio-tech research company developing Alzheimer medication and other nervous system related medication. Its leading product LEQEMBI is a fast growing Alzheimer disease modification treatment. LEQEMBI sales are expected to turn BioArctic profitable in 2025. The company is valued at 14x PS 2025 and around 17x PE 2026. BioArctic is the market leader in AD, and has a portfolio with nervous system related treatments. I expect the price to recover above 200 in 2024 upon EU approval (after the recent 35% drop). In the longer term the share price has the potential to double (3-5 years).
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  • 215.00 +23.56% (19/12/2024)
16/09/2024｜ Analyses:11
1
A

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

Monitor by Alpha

ABN is a Dutch bank with Retail banking, Wealth management and Corporate banking services in North-West Europe. Income comes mostly from NII, of which 90% in the Netherlands. A forward looking annual net profit of >€2B in 2024 gives a valuation of 6x PE at €12B market cap. 2024 results will depend on cost control and the interest rate climate. ABN is a buy with a 10% annual dividend yield (50% payout) plus €500M share buyback in 2024. And the low 0.6 PB ratio makes it an attractive investment.
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  • 17.50 +14.83% (12/02/2025)
22/08/2024｜ Analyses:8
3
R

Railcare Group AB (publ)

Sell by Alpha

Railcare is a defensive investment in infrastructure services for rail transport. At >15x PE the Swedish railroad services market potential is priced in. Recent analyst recommendations increased popularity with its effect on the share price. In the second half of 2024 I expect a 20% correction after strong share price development in the last 12 months. Especially as the Q2'24 results showed a significant drop in margins.
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  • 24.00 -16.96% (20/12/2024)
15/08/2024｜ Analyses:7
2
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Hold by Alpha

Adecoagro is a non-cyclical investment into industrial scale agriculture in South America. The business segments are Sugar, Ethanol and Energy (50% with over 50% EBITDA margin) and other Farming (50% with around 15% EBITDA margin). In 2024 the company has a 3% dividend yield plus 9% share repurchase program. This would have a positive effect on future ROE and EPS. Combined with <6x PE for TTM earnings the company is relative cheap (20% margin of safety).
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  • 15.00 +29.65% (14/08/2025)
14/08/2024｜ Analyses:9
2
S

SBM Offshore N.V.

Hold by Alpha

SBM Offshore is an investment in long-term contracts and cash-flow in the oil industry. The offshore company builds and operates FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) platforms (that produce around 2 million barrels per day). After a positive Q2'24 the company increased 2024 targets and doubled its share repurchase program. The investment case is based on the Lease and Operate business with double digit growth and 50% EBITDA margin. This segment provides a sound basis for annual cash flow. The company is undervalued at 6x 2023 EPS. Priced at €16 the company returns a 10% cash yield with >20% margin of safety on its 2025 earnings potential.
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  • 20.00 +21.88% (20/02/2025)
09/08/2024｜ Analyses:11
1
G

Garo Aktiebolag (publ)

Short-list by Alpha

GARO produces electrical system in two segments; e-Mobility (30%) and Electrification (70%). Earnings declined in 2022 and 2023 due to exposure to the construction industry. This resulted in a 85% decline in the stock price. The earnings in 2023 are disappointing with 0.6kr/share (after adjustment for one-off items). Given the slow-down in BEV-sales and construction the 2024 outlook is all but promising. At the moment the company is not invest-able with negative cash-flow, rising debt and dropping margins. The CEO and management need to present a valid turn-around strategy. Negative sentiment will prevail until actual improvements are visible in the results.
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07/08/2024｜ Analyses:3
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