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R

Rana Gruber ASA

Short-list by Jocke

Rana Gruber ASA is a sustainable iron ore producer in Norway. It is engaged in the excavation, processing and sale of iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite and iron oxide pigments. Hematite is used for iron and steel production in smelters in Europe and magnetite is used in industrial water purification processes. Iron ore production takes place at the group's iron ore deposits at Ortfjell as open pit production and underground mining. It produces and sells iron ore concentrate and primarily serves steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The majority of revenue from contracts with customers is derived from sales of hematite products. P/E 5,86, (increase from 4,1 2021) P/E* - P/B 3,21 P/S 1,50 Utdelning/aktie 4,27 NOK EPS 13,21 NOK Direktavkastning 5,52% EPS tillväxt* - The P/E has increased but it has a high ranking according to the magic formula (place 60) and I think it can be interesting to follow the progress
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02/04/2024｜Analyses:0
2
A

L'Air Liquide S.A.

Hold by Jocke

Air Liquide is the 2nd largest gas company in Europe. Air Liquide operations consist, among other things, of manufacturing and selling gases to areas such as industry, chemistry, electronics, food, environmental care and healthcare. The company operates on a global level. Air Liquide was founded in 1902 and has its headquarters in Paris Europe needs to switch from Russian Gas to other suppliers and that will be beneficial for Air Liquide. If you look at the que figures, the revenue is increasing, and they also have a good cashflow. Since start, Air Liquide has increased its turnover and is still growing. So I see no problem with the P/E being just over 28.
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01/04/2024｜Analyses:1
2
H

Hexatronic Group AB (publ)

Hold by micke

Hexatronic (HTRO) is a growing fiber optics company. The sales and profits have increased organically and via acquisitions over the previous years, but in 2023Q4 the market is softer with a slight decline in organic revenue while total revenue increase due to acquisitions. The share price had a fantastic rise from ~14SEK December 2020 to ~160SEK December 2022, where after the share price has crashed down to ~17SEK (21 Nov 2023), and probably now has normalized around 30SEK in 2024Q1. There should be low downside and good upside potential if interest rates fall and the fiber market grows. The 2024Q1 and 2024Q2 might be weaker than market expectations, potentially there is an opportunity to temporarily reduce and increase after the 2024Q2, but it could also be a straight line up if the market already calculates on a weaker Q1. Long term it could be a buy, with a ~22% upside in a year, but short term it is a hold for me.
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  • 38.00 +22.47% on 03/05/2024
28/03/2024｜Analyses:8
2
I

INDUS Holding AG

Short-list by micke

Indus Holding focuses on acquisitions of German owner led companies. As I understand it, there are quite many of these companies in Germany that Indus can invest in. The business model should be sustainable for the foreseeable future. Looking at the sales numbers, Indus sales have not grown very much the last 5 years. The share price has gone up 20% during March to €27 (2024-03-27), previous to this there was a share buy back program for 1.1M shares at €23. In the long run Indus could be very good, but I would need to dig further into their investments. Short term I don’t see why the share price just went up 20% so short term I will keep it on my Short List and follow development.
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  • 30.00 +42.18% by 28/03/2025
28/03/2024｜Analyses:4
0
M

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Buy by micke

MBG is generating very good profits and capital returns to share holders. The main profit drivers are luxury ICE cars and vans, where vans did and extra good year. EPS2023 of € 13.46, P/E=5, a proposed dividend of €5.3/share, 40% of EPS, dividend 7.4% (current share price of €71.7). In addition MBG is in the middle of a €4bn buyback program expected to be completed 2024Q3, when a new €3bn program will start with goal of completion 2025Q2. The two buy back programs will total almost 10% of all shares. MBG’s plan is to initiate following share BB in 2025. MBG profit outlook for 2024 is slightly lower than 2023. I think that the Mercedes brand is very valuable and will continue to be, the shift to EV will probably lower profits in 5-10 years but from my perspective that is already in the price, and there is more potential than risk. A reasonable P/E should be at least 10, so even i profits drops there should be potential for significant share price increases.
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  • 82.00 +43.94% by 24/02/2025
10/03/2024｜Analyses:0
3
D

Danske Bank A/S

Buy by micke

Danske Bank is Denmark’s largest bank, which gives scale and market advantages. Current price 195DKK today (2024-02-02) +5% after releasing 2023Q4 earnings and proposing a dividend of 14.5DKK, which is in sharp contrast to previous earnings and dividends which where muted/negative due to AML in the Baltic. The Baltic AML issue is now history and the bank can focus on delivering value to customers and shareholders. The share has seen significant rise (~100%) after the AML issue was finalized. I see further but more limited potential for the share to reach 240DKK, and good dividend, it is still a buy.
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  • 240.00 +19.70% by 02/02/2025
02/02/2024｜Analyses:3
2
N

Nordic Paper Holding AB (publ)

Sell by Alpha

Nordic Paper is a paper producer for Kraft paper (55%) and grease paper (45%). The company has a well diversified product portfolio and a customer mix across industries which supports quality of earnings. Although the demand from construction business is low. The business is a quality investment with 50% gross margin and 30% ROE that operates in market supported by long-term trends like; sustainability, global middle-class growth and e-commerce. In 2022 and 2023 the company has delivered a high dividend yield (>10%). Nordic Paper is a quality holding for the long term. In the short term I expect a correction that could offer buying opportunity around 35kr.
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30/01/2024｜Analyses:13
2
S

Swedbank AB (publ)

Buy by micke

The bank is making good profits. EPS2023=30SEK, up from EPS2022=19SEK. Net income was down in 2022Q4 compared to Q3. Operating income for 2023Q4 was up, but costs and tax where up more vs 2023Q3. Interest rates will probably be declining during 2024, which should lower NII but some growth and higher mortgage margins could give some relief. My high level guess is EPS2024=28SEK, slightly lower than EPS2023. Dividend for 2023 (~50% of EPS) to will be 15,5 SEK, which is 7% (share price 214SEK). If/When US investigations are ended there is a risk of high fines, but probably they will be reasonable, and dividend percentage can go back to 70%. I assume share price will increase when this is finalized, which together with dividend, are my main reasons for owning Swedbank shares.
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30/01/2024｜Analyses:6
1
E

Enea AB (publ)

Buy by micke

ENEA is niche player with several software products within telecom 5G and Cyber security. The company has struggled with slow adoption of there 5G network offerings. Telecom operators have been doing lower investments than anticipated by vendors. The ENEA CEO was replaced and major write downs in 2023Q2. Share buy backs 2023Q3 and 2023Q4, seems like a good move due to good cash-flow and low valuation. The stock seems like a potential turn-around with high risk and potential for the next years. Today (2024-01-10) at 58.80, I think it is a BUY, with high potential and high risk.
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  • 80.00 +36.29% on 31/05/2024
10/01/2024｜Analyses:9
1
N

Nordea Bank Abp

Buy by micke

The profits and share price have developed well over the last 2 years with higher rates. My assumption is that 2023Q4 will be quite similar to Q3. EPS 2023Q3=€0.38. EPS2023est=1.44. Dividend-est:1.44*0.7=€1.01. Current share price is 11.42 (2024-01-10) which gives annual 8,9% yield. PE24=8.16 which is good, since Nordea normally trades around PE=10, which gives about 20% potential. The market seems quite convinced that interest rates will drop in 2024 and that will drive down NII and profits, I think profits may remain almost on 2023 levels the coming years. The downside in my opinion is, that there are other EU banks that are cheaper or may have more potential. But I expect 10-25% total yield in one year, so it is a buy some for stability.
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  • 13.00 +18.83% by 10/01/2025
10/01/2024｜Analyses:0
1
E

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)

Archived by Alpha

Ericsson is a global supplier of telecommunication equipment. Its market position and technology moat has not resulted in positive returns for long-term investors, despite global 4G and 5G roll-out. The share price declined 50% in the past decade (apart from temporary highs), and is only 1/10 compared to its all-time high during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. The company has been involved in multiple bribery crises across the globe (incl. with ISIS). The business now has headwinds from the tougher economic climate that also impacts 5G spend. In 2023 the company announced to cut 8.500 headcount (8%) globally. And looking at recent earnings the company has mostly missed analysts expectations. Further downsizing continues in 2024. In my opinion Ericsson does not qualify as quality investment.
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  • 50.00 -15.41% on 18/10/2023
04/12/2023｜Analyses:2
0