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A

Aker Solutions ASA

Hold by micke

Management positive in the 23Q2 webcast. Very good growth. A JV with SLB (70%) and Subsea 7 (10%) and Aker Solutions (20%) will be completed during 2023H2, not sure about effects. Aker Solutions will receive 700MUSD in a combination of stock and cash for 20% of the JV, i.e. they are puting in more business than their share of the JV. Subsea is now about 1/3 of Aker Solutions. Good order intake, good result both in oil&gas as well as renewable energy (offshore wind). P/S=0.47. The stock has developed very well since bottom in March 2020. However AS is now an engineering company and I think AS should be able to have 10% margin on revenue which already with 2022 revenue would give a share price of 80 NOK, which might be a bit too optimistic but 60 NOK should be possible. The revenue would probably increase to 50 mdr NOK 2023, with current margin of 5% and no premium for growth the share price might be ~50 NOK - without the JV. From 23Q2 "Free cash flow generation of around NOK 0.8 billion on average annually from 2024 to 2026 excl. Subsea JV proceeds and dividends".
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  • 50.00 +9.79% by 16/04/2024
10/10/2023Analyses:2
1
C

Commerzbank AG

Buy by micke

Commerzbank has for some years successfully executed a restructuring program, and is now a profitable bank with my long term estimated EPS €2/year. Based on current price €10.4 (2023-09-29) PE24=5. I think a reasonable long term valuation is PE25=10, which at EPS of 2 would mean a share price of €20. Commerzbank owns a significant part of Polish mBank, approximately 70%, which grows with high profit but mBank has given Polish house owners Swiss franc loans which is a risk. 2023-09-29 Commerzbank announced that they will increase dividend for 2024 to 70% of earnings and well above 50% the years after. With an estimated EPS of €2 this would be €1.4/share. The share price increased very significantly on this news +10% to €10.61 at AM10:00.
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  • 14.00 +38.34% by 04/10/2024
04/10/2023Analyses:7
1
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Hold by alpha

Adecoagro is an agricultural company producing food and renewable energy. The business segments are Sugar, Ethanol and Energy (65% with 30% EBIT margin) and other Farming (35% with around 10% EBIT margin). In 2022 South America experienced an extreme drought which impacted farming production. In Q1'23 the good sugar, ethanol and energy results compensated for the lower farming results mainly in crops (caused by La Nina drought and higher costs). With higher sugar prices in 2023 earnings are expected to improve. The expected El Ninjo in 2023 should improve crops results in 2024. Q4'22 the earnings dropped, but on average the company makes around $1 per share in the last 36M. With higher sugar prices, energy prices and better weather conditions margins and earnings are expected to improve. My expectation is that the share price sets a new all-time high this year.
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  • 14.50 +34.63% by 01/04/2024
24/09/2023Analyses:8
2
A

Afry AB

Sell by alpha

AFRY is a technical consulting firm with segments Infrastructure (35-40%), Process industry and industry & digital solutions. The company is priced at a discount compared to its peers; which is explained by lower margins, ROC and ROE. Revenue and earnings doubled in the past 5 years. But that did not result into higher earnings per share. Initially the valuation jumped to 30x P/E but is back on its old level around 13x P/E. It looks like the market is pricing in risk for a downturn and has learned that business growth does not translate into better performance (per share-holder). Management has the objective to improve profitability in the next years. I do not see the required quality to invest, and think there is risk for more downside (ballpark 100kr).
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  • 100.00 -26.85% by 12/09/2024
12/09/2023Analyses:1
0
F

FLEX LNG Ltd.

Monitor by micke

The dividend is very good at around 10%, which is a reason to have this stock. The stock price has performed very well the last 2 years. There is a potential upside that new ships need higher rates to be profitable, but supply and demand will set the price. I don’t see much upside but there are significant risks with interest rates (there are significant hedges in place which will postpone this effect), more ships entering the market. LNG prices and effect on shipping as well as macro are very uncertain the coming years.
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17/08/2023Analyses:4
2
S

Swedbank AB (publ)

Hold by alpha

Swedbank is Sweden's largest and Europe's most profitable bank. The bank is valued at 7.5x TTM earnings Q2'23. In Q1'23 the share price suffered from the US banking crises, and fear for real-estate related bad debts in Sweden. In Q2'23 Net Interest Income (NII) drives the strong earnings growth with decreasing lending margins and (slower) increasing deposit margins. In the current economic climate with higher interest rates I would expect a continued high level of NII. Although margins decline this can be off-set by a lower percentage of fixed interest rates as retail customers currently prefer flexible interest rates. On the other hand total mortgage growth could turn negative in 2023. In the short-term 1-2 year the bank can continue to benefit from the interest rate dynamics. With 26kr/share TTM earnings Swedbank is valued with 25% margin-of-safety to fair-value. The 5 year average annual earnings are about 19kr/share resulting in 10x PE, which is the long-term average valuation. Is the market pricing in a 20% earnings decline? The 5% dividend yield can be expected to improve given the cash position and earnings. A hold with limited expected up-side and down-side risk.
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  • 235.00 +22.33% by 06/08/2024
06/08/2023Analyses:1
0
M

MPC Container Ships ASA

Archived by alpha

MPC-C is a container shipping company specialized in intra-regional container transport. MPC-C was founded by asset manager MPC Capital in 2017. The company owns 60 container vessels at 1.000-3.500 TEU. With 2x PE, 0.3 Debt/Equity and 30% dividend yield the company looks interesting at first glance. Since many of its ships are 15-20 years old the fleet is not competitive and modernization is required. A downturn and lower rates are expected which will have a larger impact on older inefficient ships. The company recently raised its forecast for 2023, but I think the investment is too high risk.
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30/07/2023Analyses:0
0
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