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S

Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)

Buy by micke

Handelsbanken had a good result 2023Q3 with net earnings of 4.02 SEK/share, slightly up from Q2. My best guess is that we will remain on these profit levels, a small decline in 24/25 when interest rates are lowered, but the bank's growth will compensate for this in a year or two. My approximation is 15 SEK/year net profit, PE23=6.5.The bank normally has a P/E of 10, which gives an upside of about 50%. I think we will see dividends of around 70%*15=10,5SEK, i.e. 10%, dividend yield.
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  • 130.00 +40.57% (12/06/2024)
18/10/2023｜ Analyses:6
2
R

Rottneros AB (publ)

Author: micke

Strong balance sheet as a result of very strong pulp prices during 2022, hedged electrical prices 2022, and relatively prudent financial management knowing that pulp is a cyclical business. Prices on wood used has increased, i.e. higher costs, due to Ukraine invasion limiting Russian supply to Finland. The pulp prices are declining due to global recession, and will probably continue to decline and/or stay low for some time before they turn up according to Rottneros outlook. My guess is that the share price might continue to drop during Q2 and after the Q2 report where I expect a weak result, and depending on outlook on pulp prices stay low or turn up, where my guess is that it will turn up during the second half of 2023, since the company's finances are overall good with low debt. Short term risks and variations, should be a good long term investment with good total return (10%/year) and low long term risk.
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12/10/2023｜ Analyses:7
0
A

Aker Solutions ASA

Hold by micke

Management positive in the 23Q2 webcast. Very good growth. A JV with SLB (70%) and Subsea 7 (10%) and Aker Solutions (20%) will be completed during 2023H2, not sure about effects. Aker Solutions will receive 700MUSD in a combination of stock and cash for 20% of the JV, i.e. they are puting in more business than their share of the JV. Subsea is now about 1/3 of Aker Solutions. Good order intake, good result both in oil&gas as well as renewable energy (offshore wind). P/S=0.47. The stock has developed very well since bottom in March 2020. However AS is now an engineering company and I think AS should be able to have 10% margin on revenue which already with 2022 revenue would give a share price of 80 NOK, which might be a bit too optimistic but 60 NOK should be possible. The revenue would probably increase to 50 mdr NOK 2023, with current margin of 5% and no premium for growth the share price might be ~50 NOK - without the JV. From 23Q2 "Free cash flow generation of around NOK 0.8 billion on average annually from 2024 to 2026 excl. Subsea JV proceeds and dividends".
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  • 50.00 +8.23% (17/04/2024)
10/10/2023｜ Analyses:2
1
F

FLEX LNG Ltd.

Author: micke

The dividend is very good at around 10%, which is a reason to have this stock. The stock price has performed very well the last 2 years. There is a potential upside that new ships need higher rates to be profitable, but supply and demand will set the price. I don’t see much upside but there are significant risks with interest rates (there are significant hedges in place which will postpone this effect), more ships entering the market. LNG prices and effect on shipping as well as macro are very uncertain the coming years.
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17/08/2023｜ Analyses:4
2
S

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

Author: micke

2023-07-01 at 119SEK. The 2023Q1 was very strong (high NII) and I assume that Q2 will be quite similar and probably going forward 2023 and 2024. The stock market seems to assume that rates will come down already in the end of 2023, I think it will be a bit further away and that rates will not go especially low. During the Q1 presentation Q&A SEB got the question when NII will be lower, the bank replied that long term growth will continue, a potential lower NII would only be temporary. 2023Q1 EPS was 4.45SEK which on a year would be 17.8SEK which would give PE23= 6.9. The normal PE for Swedish banks is 10, thus an upside potential of 48%. Clearly showing that other investors do not think these profit levels are sustainable. 2021-12-23 at 123SEK. The business is going well and increasing at a few percent per year on average. Profit pre-tax is ~8BSEK per quarter and ~6.6 after tax, amounting to 27B/year, est P/B21=9.7. My estimate is slightly higher profit 2022 since business is improving and reservations for bad loans are probably bigger than actual defaults will be.
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01/07/2023｜ Analyses:5
0
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Monitor by micke

2023-06-21 9.99USD. The risk for shortage does not seem to be a threat as of now. I find the financial reports a bit hard to understand and see some risks with this, and thus taking a bit hesitant approach without a clear goal. 2022-03-13 12.34USD. I guess that there will be a global shortage of agricultural products during this and next year which will drive up prices and profits. I also guess that the oil will remain at $90-$100 levels which will keep ethanol price high. There is a lot of uncertainty but in other aspects an agricultural company gives nice diversity to my stock portfolio.
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21/06/2023｜ Analyses:4
1
I

International Petroleum Corporation

Buy by micke

2021-11-06 price 49SEK. The oil price has increased to around $80 (WTI+Brent)/2. IPC has a large share of Canadian oil which trades at a discount, about minus $15. IPC also operates in France and Malaysia. IPC has good financing and loans have been amortized further during 2021. With small loans IPC can choose not to hedge. IPC is very positively effected by high oil prices. The management seems competent and balanced. The management where very please with 2021Q3 results and the FCF guidance 2021 of around 250MUSD, and if no hedges had been in place it would have been around 300MUSD. Compared to current market cap of 7632MSEK, the market cap/FCF=3years. Average net production of approximately 46,800 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. As I understand it, IPC has resources and prospects to be able to continue to deliver on these levels for 20 years. IPC will start a share by back program now. One can argue that the share price has gone up much during 2021, that reflects a lower risk and higher expected oil and gas prices 2021 and going forward.
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  • 80.00 +61.94% (21/03/2022)
03/04/2023｜ Analyses:6
0
B

BW Energy Limited

Author: micke

2021-11-05 Price 26NOK. BW Energy (BW Offshore group spin-off). Kepler Cheuvreux have a very positive outlook +72% (45NOK) and Pareto has it in the model portfolio. In the 2021Q2 presentation; the company says it is well financed without loans. The company has some production now and a positive cash flow and it will increase significantly during 2022 and through 2025 topping at 60000 bbls. The company has focus on M&A and development of existing fields. Do not expect dividend before 2025. But consider if it is best to take this stock or better to go for a stock that will deliver shareholder return in the near future such as Africa Oil or IPCO. The share dropped 28 Oct due to a large sell by BW Offshore. There was a payout for Q2 production in Q3 but the production in Q3 till go to the government, this will probably make a very weak Q3. Consider if it is better to wait and by after the Q3 report, the Q4 will probably be strong, or if now is a good time given the recent fall and that a weak Q3 is expected...
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03/04/2023｜ Analyses:3
1
E

Embracer Group AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Embracer is a founder managed global group of gaming companies with a large differentiated portfolio of games and other IP. With the acquisition of Asmodee in Dec'21 the company also became a global publisher and distributor of board games and trading cards. M&A in 2021 resulted in 128% revenue growth divided in following segments; PC/Console (30%), Mobile Games (15%), Tabletop Games (35%), and Entertainment & Services (20%). 2022 TTM profit was 1.9kr/share. Net profits are low due to depreciation of immaterial assets from M&A. EBITDA was 6.163Mkr vs 2.061Mkr profit.
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30/03/2023｜ Analyses:10
0
C

Commerzbank AG

Monitor by Alpha

Commerzbank's restructuring pressures current profits. The market expects profits to recover 2023/2024. The historical profit margin is at best 10% in the last 10 years (compared to 25-45% for Swedish banks). With a market cap of €8B the shares are close to 10x EV/E in 2024 (€0.70 per share). This is a fair value for the sector with the turn-around and market risks for Commerz bank. Sentiment and momentum could keep the share price moving.
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26/03/2023｜ Analyses:2
0
M

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.

Monitor by SelbyRoyal

Madison Square Garden Entertainment owns a collection of iconic performance venues in some of the world’s most important entertainment markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Many of these assets have predictable values such as Madison Square Garden in NY + associated air rights, the annual Christmas Spectacular show as well as various balance sheet items at cost. More uncertain elements include the Sphere, a huge construction project meant to 'reimagine' live shows, and MSGN, which owns regional sports networks in NY. Back-of-the-Envelope Valuation: Madison Square Garden – 1,407MM (City of New York's Independent Budget Office 2014 market valuation) Tao Hospitality Group – 290MM ('19 after-tax CF @ 13x, assuming Hakkasan acquired stores at only 60% profitability of TAO stores) Christmas Spectacular – 633MM (gross income of 78MM, 'annuity-like' cash stream, estimated CF of 42MM, @ 15x) MSGN – 1,400MM ('19 after-tax CF @ 7x as future of RSN is gloomy. But, sports betting optionality in NY exists) Balance Sheet Items: Net Cash – 215MM CapEx of Sphere to-date – 850MM Air Rights – 128MM (50% haircut to JPM/Grand Central comp.) Equity Investments – 121.5MM Land – 80MM Tax Credits – 151.5MM (505 NOL * 30%) Net Debt from MSGN Acq. – (-721MM) Sphere: Assumed Cost – 2,000MM (over-budget due infl. pressures) Assumed Worth – 1,400MM (project is a dud) Final Value – 3,955MM FV/shr – $116
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  • 116.00 +69.94% (23/01/2023)
22/01/2023｜ Analyses:3
0