Alphaboard - research by investors.

The bank is making good profits. EPS2023=30SEK, up from EPS2022=19SEK. Net income was down in 2022Q4 compared to Q3. Operating income for 2023Q4 was up, but costs and tax where up more vs 2023Q3. Interest rates will probably be declining during 2024, which should lower NII but some growth and higher mortgage margins could give some relief. My high level guess is EPS2024=28SEK, slightly lower than EPS2023. Dividend for 2023 (~50% of EPS) to will be 15,5 SEK, which is 7% (share price 214SEK). If/When US investigations are ended there is a risk of high fines, but probably they will be reasonable, and dividend percentage can go back to 70%. I assume share price will increase when this is finalized, which together with dividend, are my main reasons for owning Swedbank shares.

Swedbank is Sweden's largest and Europe's most profitable bank. The bank is valued at 7.5x TTM earnings Q2'23. In Q1'23 the share price suffered from the US banking crises, and fear for real-estate related bad debts in Sweden. In Q2'23 Net Interest Income (NII) drives the strong earnings growth with decreasing lending margins and (slower) increasing deposit margins.

In the current economic climate with higher interest rates I would expect a continued high level of NII. Although margins decline this can be off-set by a lower percentage of fixed interest rates as retail customers currently prefer flexible interest rates. On the other hand total mortgage growth could turn negative in 2023. In the short-term 1-2 year the bank can continue to benefit from the interest rate dynamics.

With 26kr/share TTM earnings Swedbank is valued with 25% margin-of-safety to fair-value. The 5 year average annual earnings are about 19kr/share resulting in 10x PE, which is the long-term average valuation. Is the market pricing in a 20% earnings decline?

The 5% dividend yield can be expected to improve given the cash position and earnings. A hold with limited expected up-side and down-side risk.