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Commerzbank AG

Financial Services
CBK.DE: 

Research by ALPHA

Author: Alpha
  • 18.45 +77.75% (04/02/2025)
  • MONITOR 

Commerzbank's restructuring pressures current profits. The market expects profits to recover 2023/2024. The historical profit margin is at best 10% in the last 10 years (compared to 25-45% for Swedish banks). With a market cap of €8B the shares are close to 10x EV/E in 2024 (€0.70 per share). This is a fair value for the sector with the turn-around and market risks for Commerz bank. Sentiment and momentum could keep the share price moving.

26/03/2023｜ Analyses:2
0
  • Financial (2)

    • Capital return
      2022: 30% (€0.4bn),

      2023: 50% (~€0.9bn), in 2024Q1 the bank will probably do buybacks of €0.6bn which was slightly higher than initially planned. At share price €10.6 that would obe 4.6% of the shares.

      2024: 70 + X%, 2024 return consists of share buy-back applied for after H1 2024 results and dividend approved at AGM in 2025.

      2022-24 total: ~€3bn. Where of 3-1.3 = €1.7bn remaining for 2024, €0.6bn in dividend (€0.7/share) and €1bn in buy back.

      2025-2027 capital return with a pay-out ratio previously comnunicated "well above 50%" now looks to be >90%, but not more than the net result. The taget CET1 ratio is 13.5% which is lower than the 14.8% in 2024Q2.

      02/10/2024 by MICKE｜
      2

    • Finances have improved very significantly due to the new managements execution of a restructuring plan. During 2021 the banks goals as well as analysts' estimates where set for operational profit 2021 (net -500MEUR), net profit 2022=500MEur, 2023=1000MEur, and 2024=1500MEur. With increases in ECB’s rates and good execution the outcome and expectations are now higher.

      04/10/2023 by MICKE｜
      2