Research by MICKE
Author: micke
- 154.30 +212.35% (04/07/2025)
- 80.00 +61.94% (21/03/2022)
- BUY
2021-11-06 price 49SEK. The oil price has increased to around $80 (WTI+Brent)/2. IPC has a large share of Canadian oil which trades at a discount, about minus $15. IPC also operates in France and Malaysia. IPC has good financing and loans have been amortized further during 2021. With small loans IPC can choose not to hedge. IPC is very positively effected by high oil prices. The management seems competent and balanced. The management where very please with 2021Q3 results and the FCF guidance 2021 of around 250MUSD, and if no hedges had been in place it would have been around 300MUSD. Compared to current market cap of 7632MSEK, the market cap/FCF=3years. Average net production of approximately 46,800 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. As I understand it, IPC has resources and prospects to be able to continue to deliver on these levels for 20 years. IPC will start a share by back program now. One can argue that the share price has gone up much during 2021, that reflects a lower risk and higher expected oil and gas prices 2021 and going forward.
Business (2)
No oil hedge 2022, 20% gas hedge 2022. High oil & gas prices going forward would make IPC very profitable.
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1Many investors avoid oil companies. Many banks do not lend money to oil companies. Most people see the end of oil and that is will be replaced by renewable energy. These aspects are limiting on long term investments, which will reduce production capacity in years to come. These risks will require higher returns for investors that are willing to take the risk.
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1
Financial (1)
Strong financials, with low loan.
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1
Risks (3)
Some countries such as Iran, Libya and Venezuela could potentially produce much more but are currently not able to of macro/political reasons.
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1If OPEC+ would raise or remove production llimitations, prices would go down. (But Sauidi and others want the oil price to be 80USD or more.)
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1No oil hedges and only 20% gas hedge. If oil prices go down below $50 that will be bad for the stock price...
06/11/2021 by MICKE|1