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S

Swedbank AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Swedbank is Sweden's largest and Europe's most profitable bank. The bank is valued at 7.5x TTM earnings Q2'23. In Q1'23 the share price suffered from the US banking crises, and fear for real-estate related bad debts in Sweden. In Q2'23 Net Interest Income (NII) drives the strong earnings growth with decreasing lending margins and (slower) increasing deposit margins. In the current economic climate with higher interest rates I would expect a continued high level of NII. Although margins decline this can be off-set by a lower percentage of fixed interest rates as retail customers currently prefer flexible interest rates. On the other hand total mortgage growth could turn negative in 2023. In the short-term 1-2 year the bank can continue to benefit from the interest rate dynamics. With 26kr/share TTM earnings Swedbank is valued with 25% margin-of-safety to fair-value. The 5 year average annual earnings are about 19kr/share resulting in 10x PE, which is the long-term average valuation. Is the market pricing in a 20% earnings decline? The 5% dividend yield can be expected to improve given the cash position and earnings. A hold with limited expected up-side and down-side risk.
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  • 235.00 +7.40% (06/08/2024)
06/08/2023｜Analyses:1
0
M

MPC Container Ships ASA

Author: Alpha

MPC-C is a container shipping company specialized in intra-regional container transport. MPC-C was founded by asset manager MPC Capital in 2017. The company owns 60 container vessels at 1.000-3.500 TEU. With 2x PE, 0.3 Debt/Equity and 30% dividend yield the company looks interesting at first glance. Since many of its ships are 15-20 years old the fleet is not competitive and modernization is required. A downturn and lower rates are expected which will have a larger impact on older inefficient ships. The company recently raised its forecast for 2023, but I think the investment is too high risk.
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30/07/2023｜Analyses:0
0
F

FLEX LNG Ltd.

Author: Alpha

Flex LNG launched a new LNG fleet with 13 ships purchased at relative low CAPEX and with excellent timing. In 2021-2022 the company turned spot priced contracts into attractive longer term agreements. The modern fleet generates good profit margins (80% gross). In the Q1 2023 report, management confirmed the guidance for 2023, which should be accurate as 12/13 ships are on fixed contracts. However with a debt/equity ratio above 2 earnings are sensitive for financial costs (debt and lease). I expect quarterly earnings to decline to $0.5-0.6/share resulting in a fair value of 250-300kr.
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14/07/2023｜Analyses:8
1
S

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

Buy by micke

2023-07-01 at 119SEK. The 2023Q1 was very strong (high NII) and I assume that Q2 will be quite similar and probably going forward 2023 and 2024. The stock market seems to assume that rates will come down already in the end of 2023, I think it will be a bit further away and that rates will not go especially low. During the Q1 presentation Q&A SEB got the question when NII will be lower, the bank replied that long term growth will continue, a potential lower NII would only be temporary. 2023Q1 EPS was 4.45SEK which on a year would be 17.8SEK which would give PE23= 6.9. The normal PE for Swedish banks is 10, thus an upside potential of 48%. Clearly showing that other investors do not think these profit levels are sustainable. 2021-12-23 at 123SEK. The business is going well and increasing at a few percent per year on average. Profit pre-tax is ~8BSEK per quarter and ~6.6 after tax, amounting to 27B/year, est P/B21=9.7. My estimate is slightly higher profit 2022 since business is improving and reservations for bad loans are probably bigger than actual defaults will be.
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  • 160.00 +6.67% (01/07/2024)
01/07/2023｜Analyses:5
0
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Monitor by micke

2023-06-21 9.99USD. The risk for shortage does not seem to be a threat as of now. I find the financial reports a bit hard to understand and see some risks with this, and thus taking a bit hesitant approach without a clear goal. 2022-03-13 12.34USD. I guess that there will be a global shortage of agricultural products during this and next year which will drive up prices and profits. I also guess that the oil will remain at $90-$100 levels which will keep ethanol price high. There is a lot of uncertainty but in other aspects an agricultural company gives nice diversity to my stock portfolio.
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21/06/2023｜Analyses:4
1
A

Adler Group S.A.

Author: micke

The company has a P/B=0.32 and has used external companies to value their real estate. Fraser Perring, Viceroy, a short seller, claims it is a kleptocracy company, “built on systemic dishonesty”, and the valuations are not true. Adler strongly disagrees with the short seller and claim that the valuations are correct. 2021-10-08 Vonovia acquires an option over 13.3% stake in Adler Group from Aggregate Holdings, expires March or April 2023, with a price at 14EUR. https://viceroyresearch.org/2021/10/12/adler-group-the-whistleblower-vs-the-lawyer/ https://ir.adler-group.com/websites/adler-group/German/2000/news-_-publikationen.html#adhoc
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09/05/2023｜Analyses:4
0
B

Boliden AB (publ)

Hold by micke

2022-01-23 price 386 SEK. Copper price has been high during 2021 ~9500USD/tonne, Zinc is up (volatile ~20%) to ~3400USD/tonne during Q4, Nickel was around 20000USD/tonne during 2021 but is now 2022Q1 up to 24000USD/tonne. Zinc is the most important metal for Boliden so profits should rise for 2021Q4 and if copper and zinc remain high nickel should drive 2022Q1. Current 2021Q3 P/E=12 which is probably quite normal, the increased profits for 2021Q4 and 2022Q1 will probably support the current historically high price and Boliden dividends excess cash so the dividends should be good during 2022. The 2021Q3 presentation was quite neutral regarding the future. Given that other stocks haven't performed good during Jan 2022 there might be opportunities to get more value in other places, but it will probably be good to hold Boliden as well. 2021-10-24 Boliden is a very well managed company, but generally the profits are very dependent on the metal prices. Zinc, copper, nickel are the most important metals in that order. There is a balancing effects with some gold and silver. Boliden also have smelters which also can balance results. Boliden is a part of the recycling of metals. Buy Boliden as a long term investment or as a short term trade if you believe on high metal prices the coming year.
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  • 400.00 +52.29% (24/10/2022)
03/04/2023｜Analyses:3
2
I

International Petroleum Corporation

Buy by micke

2021-11-06 price 49SEK. The oil price has increased to around $80 (WTI+Brent)/2. IPC has a large share of Canadian oil which trades at a discount, about minus $15. IPC also operates in France and Malaysia. IPC has good financing and loans have been amortized further during 2021. With small loans IPC can choose not to hedge. IPC is very positively effected by high oil prices. The management seems competent and balanced. The management where very please with 2021Q3 results and the FCF guidance 2021 of around 250MUSD, and if no hedges had been in place it would have been around 300MUSD. Compared to current market cap of 7632MSEK, the market cap/FCF=3years. Average net production of approximately 46,800 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. As I understand it, IPC has resources and prospects to be able to continue to deliver on these levels for 20 years. IPC will start a share by back program now. One can argue that the share price has gone up much during 2021, that reflects a lower risk and higher expected oil and gas prices 2021 and going forward.
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  • 80.00 -13.04% (06/11/2022)
03/04/2023｜Analyses:6
0
B

BW Energy Limited

Short-list by micke

2021-11-05 Price 26NOK. BW Energy (BW Offshore group spin-off). Kepler Cheuvreux have a very positive outlook +72% (45NOK) and Pareto has it in the model portfolio. In the 2021Q2 presentation; the company says it is well financed without loans. The company has some production now and a positive cash flow and it will increase significantly during 2022 and through 2025 topping at 60000 bbls. The company has focus on M&A and development of existing fields. Do not expect dividend before 2025. But consider if it is best to take this stock or better to go for a stock that will deliver shareholder return in the near future such as Africa Oil or IPCO. The share dropped 28 Oct due to a large sell by BW Offshore. There was a payout for Q2 production in Q3 but the production in Q3 till go to the government, this will probably make a very weak Q3. Consider if it is better to wait and by after the Q3 report, the Q4 will probably be strong, or if now is a good time given the recent fall and that a weak Q3 is expected...
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  • 40.00 +45.99% (05/11/2022)
03/04/2023｜Analyses:3
1
E

Embracer Group AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Embracer is a founder managed global group of gaming companies with a large differentiated portfolio of games and other IP. With the acquisition of Asmodee in Dec'21 the company also became a global publisher and distributor of board games and trading cards. M&A in 2021 resulted in 128% revenue growth divided in following segments; PC/Console (30%), Mobile Games (15%), Tabletop Games (35%), and Entertainment & Services (20%). 2022 TTM profit was 1.9kr/share. Net profits are low due to depreciation of immaterial assets from M&A. EBITDA was 6.163Mkr vs 2.061Mkr profit.
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30/03/2023｜Analyses:10
0