Calliditas is an orphan drug biotech developing Nefecon as treatment against kidney failure (IgA-nefrit). Nefecon, marketed as TARPEYO, gained accelerated approval in Dec'21 and full approval with extended label to protect the kidney function in December 2023. The company has a first-mover advantage and is at least 12-months ahead of the competition.
The 2023 growth trajectory (before full approval) indicates that the company can turn profitable in the first half 2024. Assuming a 80% growth in paying TRAPEYO patients to ±1350 (in Q4 2024) the company's market cap (6Bkr) is 12x 2024 EBITDA.
Patients growth in 2024 will de-risk the investment and increase the PE multiple. A 100% upside is possible based upon 15x PE of 800Mkr in 2025.