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F

FLEX LNG Ltd.

Monitor by micke

The dividend is very good at around 10%, which is a reason to have this stock. The stock price has performed very well the last 2 years. There is a potential upside that new ships need higher rates to be profitable, but supply and demand will set the price. I don’t see much upside but there are significant risks with interest rates (there are significant hedges in place which will postpone this effect), more ships entering the market. LNG prices and effect on shipping as well as macro are very uncertain the coming years.
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17/08/2023｜Analyses:4
2
S

Swedbank AB (publ)

Hold by Alpha

Swedbank is Sweden's largest and Europe's most profitable bank. The bank is valued at 7.5x TTM earnings Q2'23. In Q1'23 the share price suffered from the US banking crises, and fear for real-estate related bad debts in Sweden. In Q2'23 Net Interest Income (NII) drives the strong earnings growth with decreasing lending margins and (slower) increasing deposit margins. In the current economic climate with higher interest rates I would expect a continued high level of NII. Although margins decline this can be off-set by a lower percentage of fixed interest rates as retail customers currently prefer flexible interest rates. On the other hand total mortgage growth could turn negative in 2023. In the short-term 1-2 year the bank can continue to benefit from the interest rate dynamics. With 26kr/share TTM earnings Swedbank is valued with 25% margin-of-safety to fair-value. The 5 year average annual earnings are about 19kr/share resulting in 10x PE, which is the long-term average valuation. Is the market pricing in a 20% earnings decline? The 5% dividend yield can be expected to improve given the cash position and earnings. A hold with limited expected up-side and down-side risk.
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  • 235.00 +7.80% by 06/08/2024
06/08/2023｜Analyses:1
0
M

MPC Container Ships ASA

Archived by Alpha

MPC-C is a container shipping company specialized in intra-regional container transport. MPC-C was founded by asset manager MPC Capital in 2017. The company owns 60 container vessels at 1.000-3.500 TEU. With 2x PE, 0.3 Debt/Equity and 30% dividend yield the company looks interesting at first glance. Since many of its ships are 15-20 years old the fleet is not competitive and modernization is required. A downturn and lower rates are expected which will have a larger impact on older inefficient ships. The company recently raised its forecast for 2023, but I think the investment is too high risk.
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30/07/2023｜Analyses:0
0
F

FLEX LNG Ltd.

Archived by Alpha

Flex LNG launched a new LNG fleet with 13 ships purchased at relative low CAPEX and with excellent timing. In 2021-2022 the company turned spot priced contracts into attractive longer term agreements. The modern fleet generates good profit margins (80% gross). In the Q1 2023 report, management confirmed the guidance for 2023, which should be accurate as 12/13 ships are on fixed contracts. However with a debt/equity ratio above 2 earnings are sensitive for financial costs (debt and lease). I expect quarterly earnings to decline to $0.5-0.6/share resulting in a fair value of 250-300kr.
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14/07/2023｜Analyses:8
1
S

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

Buy by micke

2023-07-01 at 119SEK. The 2023Q1 was very strong (high NII) and I assume that Q2 will be quite similar and probably going forward 2023 and 2024. The stock market seems to assume that rates will come down already in the end of 2023, I think it will be a bit further away and that rates will not go especially low. During the Q1 presentation Q&A SEB got the question when NII will be lower, the bank replied that long term growth will continue, a potential lower NII would only be temporary. 2023Q1 EPS was 4.45SEK which on a year would be 17.8SEK which would give PE23= 6.9. The normal PE for Swedish banks is 10, thus an upside potential of 48%. Clearly showing that other investors do not think these profit levels are sustainable. 2021-12-23 at 123SEK. The business is going well and increasing at a few percent per year on average. Profit pre-tax is ~8BSEK per quarter and ~6.6 after tax, amounting to 27B/year, est P/B21=9.7. My estimate is slightly higher profit 2022 since business is improving and reservations for bad loans are probably bigger than actual defaults will be.
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  • 160.00 +5.23% by 01/07/2024
01/07/2023｜Analyses:5
0
A

Adecoagro S.A.

Monitor by micke

2023-06-21 9.99USD. The risk for shortage does not seem to be a threat as of now. I find the financial reports a bit hard to understand and see some risks with this, and thus taking a bit hesitant approach without a clear goal. 2022-03-13 12.34USD. I guess that there will be a global shortage of agricultural products during this and next year which will drive up prices and profits. I also guess that the oil will remain at $90-$100 levels which will keep ethanol price high. There is a lot of uncertainty but in other aspects an agricultural company gives nice diversity to my stock portfolio.
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21/06/2023｜Analyses:5
1
A

Adler Group S.A.

Archived by micke

The company has a P/B=0.32 and has used external companies to value their real estate. Fraser Perring, Viceroy, a short seller, claims it is a kleptocracy company, “built on systemic dishonesty”, and the valuations are not true. Adler strongly disagrees with the short seller and claim that the valuations are correct. 2021-10-08 Vonovia acquires an option over 13.3% stake in Adler Group from Aggregate Holdings, expires March or April 2023, with a price at 14EUR. https://viceroyresearch.org/2021/10/12/adler-group-the-whistleblower-vs-the-lawyer/ https://ir.adler-group.com/websites/adler-group/German/2000/news-_-publikationen.html#adhoc
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09/05/2023｜Analyses:4
0
S

SSAB AB (publ)

Sell by Alpha

SSAB is a Swedish steel producer with a strategic focus to only produce fossil steel from 2030. Its markets are Special Steels (30%), Americas (43%) and Europe (27%). The steel market demand and pricing is stable at the start of 2023. The company delivered strong in 2022 and Q1 2023 compared to previous years. At 75kr (22kr) the share price is up 200% in the past 3 years. The current price gives 10% dividend yield valued at PE 4-5x. However given the economic situation, especially the construction sector, there is a risk for a value trap waiting for a correction.
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  • 55.00 -13.52% by 01/10/2024
04/05/2023｜Analyses:1
0