Alphaboard - research by investors.

Commerzbank continues to deliver and repeat their plans to increase profits. I think Commerzbank’s result estimates are reasonable, looking back a few years their estimates have been conservative. Long term I think banks that are well run, such as Commerzbank, should be traded at P/E=10 or a bit higher on long term profits and a positive profit trend. The outlook for 2025 was confirmed an slightly raised after 25Q2, Net result ~€2.5bn – respectively ~€2.9bn before restructuring charges. For FY2025 there will be lower costs for CHF loans in PL, I guess ~500M, and no significant costs after FY2025. Commerzbank has a positive outlook with a 2028 plan with yearly growth and cost efficiencies. With these numbers I see that the share price should be around €35 during 2026 and a potential to reach €40 in a couple of years. Short term the share price can be volatility, for example Uni-Credits interest in Commerzbank or not. Commerzbank will be returning (buy back and dividend) ~100% of profits before restructuring costs for FY2025 and following years. In July Commerzbank applied for further €1bn in share buy backs, and higher interest in EU stock market vs US which will probably drive the share price higher during 2025 and there could be a peak for the share in 2025H2 with extra high share price.

Commerzbank's restructuring pressures current profits. The market expects profits to recover 2023/2024. The historical profit margin is at best 10% in the last 10 years (compared to 25-45% for Swedish banks). With a market cap of €8B the shares are close to 10x EV/E in 2024 (€0.70 per share). This is a fair value for the sector with the turn-around and market risks for Commerz bank. Sentiment and momentum could keep the share price moving.